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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (89107)	11/22/2007 2:14:27 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

This feels much more like a mixture of 1973-74 and 1990 .. A major stock market crash happens on a major back up in long term rates or a currency crisis whichever happens first IMHO. Personally I'm expecting muddle through the next few years as long as interest rates remain so low.. Recall 73-74' and 80-81' crashes were caused in large part by both oil and interest rates skyrocketing. This banking crisis still is not even close to the RTC days of 1989-93 though for those tied to the housing construction or residential lending industries it might feel like the 1930's or telecom in the 2001-04 period. Gold, short of depression repeat, will be the shining star..

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (89107)	11/22/2007 2:54:38 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing mysterious about this. The reason is plain to everybody who will take the trouble to think about it half a minute. Suppose an operator raided a stock -- that is, put the price down to a level below its real value -- what would inevitably happen? Why, the raider would at once be up against the best kind of inside buying. The people who know what a stock is worth will always buy it when it is selling at bargain prices. If the insiders are not able to buy, it will be because general conditions are against their free command of their own resources, and such conditions are not bull conditions. When people speak about raids the inference is that the raids are unjustified; almost criminal. But selling a stock down to a price much below what it is worth is mighty dangerous business. It is well to bear in mind that a raided stock that fails to rally is not getting much inside buying and where there is a raid, that is unjustified short selling -- there is usually apt to be inside buying; and when there is that, the price does not stay down. I should say that in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred, so-called raids are really legitimate declines, accelerated at times but not primarily caused by the operations of a professional trader, however big a line he may be able to swing. The theory that most of the sudden declines or particular sharp breaks are the results of some plunger's operations probably was invented as an easy way of supplying reasons to those speculators who, being nothing but blind gamblers, will believe anything that is told them rather than do a little thinking. The raid excuse for losses that unfortunate speculators so often receive from brokers and financial gossipers is really an inverted tip. The difference lies in this: A bear tip is distinct, positive advice to sell short. But the inverted tip -- that is, the explanation that does not explain -- serves merely to keep you from wisely selling short. The natural tendency when a stock breaks badly is to sell it. There is a reason -- an unknown reason but a good reason; therefore get out. But it is not wise to get out when the break is the result of a raid by an operator, because the moment he stops the price must rebound. Inverted tips!" -- Jesse Livermore, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (page 152) nowandfutures.com