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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Haddad who wrote (2560)	11/23/2007 9:07:59 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71479

Hi Mark, Any time you do anything with options you need to have an outlook on what price direction and Implied volatility, whether you think it's going to increase, decrease or stay the same. $/JPY has lots of support at 104.80 to 105 and then at 102 and change basis spot. I really doubt we take out 105 prior to 2008, and really really dubious about going below 102.30 before 2008. As a matter of fact the Eur/JPY cross is at 160.70 currently and looks to me like it will kick back up towad 164 and change next week. Since the Eur/$ is very close to the significantly psychological and round number of 1.50, I would have to forecast strenth in the USD/JPY and for a little Yen weakness to get the EUR/JPY to strenghten, unless the EUR blows through 1.50 and heads to 151.80 or 152.00. Straight up $/JPY trading tends to mystify me anyway. What about buying the AUD/USD looking for it to rebound from this 88.70 area and fill the gap at 91 and change. I would also think the CAD is not going right back through the 1.00 level substantially with out taking another run down to the .9500- .9600. for any of you cross currency or pairs traders check out the CAD/JPY.... it's moved down from 116.00 to under 109.50 during the past two weeks in what shows up as descending wedge on the hourly charts. I am looking for a spirited and fast paced move back to 116- 116.95 over the coming week or so. That would make sense, as both the Commodity and yield currencies (AUD and CAD) rally, the Yen weakens on the crosses. typically currency volatility goes down in Dec as the holidays keep some of the really heavy global macro players trying to get some time off. Good article in the WSJ today about Aerobus unable to stay in business at these Eur Levels. So Long AUD, Long CAD and Long CAD against the JPY... just a few musings. Happy TDay. John oh yea, and don't bet the kids milk money, the kids need milk or a quality calcium supplement to ensure for strong bone development -g- JP