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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (25608)	11/25/2007 4:15:35 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218038

Brazilians didn't pay for the silver in that Audi!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (25608)	11/25/2007 11:36:20 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 218038

TJ, I have never said oil would be US$2 again. I said the cost of production for Saudi Arabia was something like that. That isn't the same thing as saying they would sell it for that price. There is a thing called supply and demand and product pricing reflects supply and demand, modulated by competition, rather than the cost of production. Of course the cost of production is the minimum the price can be [other than for a very brief time], but it's not very often that prices of anything are that low or people would just put their money in a bank. The price of oil will revert to the long run marginal cost of production. Oil's market share will be determined by how much alternative energy is economic at that price. $100 a barrel oil is higher than the cost of alternatives. That's why there's a global stampede into alternatives. I saw it all before, in the early 1980s when my jobs involved creating said alternatives. There's the wild card of CO2 emissions and if governments do what they should do if they are serious about their doomsterism, which is transfer taxation from cyberspace to fossil carbon. If they do that, it will push people even faster towards replacing oil, gas and coal with nuclear, photovoltaics, wind turbines, insulation, living in a more equable climate, driving a little vehicle instead of a monster, living closer to work, getting deliveries via delivery agents rather than driving kilometres to buy a widget, holiday nearby instead of on the other side of the planet. The process has been underway for years now: washingtonpost.com There is also the coming population bust, with Peak People predicted to occur in 2037 [which will coincidentally be the year of Peak Oil]. Mqurice