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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (53363)	11/25/2007 11:27:43 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78417

<I disagree, of course. Currency trading is "momo" driven rather than fundamentally driven.> Fundamentals are the "context" of the more short term situation. If the context is an increase in the supply of dollars, in the long run it's going down. Of course there may be trades in between.... but when you have a situation like the dollar, which has been chroncled very well by Heinz Blasnick and others so I won't repeat other than to say the the US dollar is the MOST OVEROWNED asset in the world on top of the current situation of further dollar creation, IMHO as an investor it makes little sense to own it, probably in my lifetime. <To my mind it is inescapable that they will see a spike top and a reversal. They will see that the trend has changed and to follow the new trend they must be short rather than long the looney.< I don't disagree... but again, that's all traderspeak. AS an investor I'm not worried about the nesxt year or two... although I doubt the "trend" you've divinded will last that long, that also is trader opinion based on the time frame. <Moreover, I read that momentum trading can be likened to a long option position.> Yes, just like "we won't have a flood here, so we'll lay off the insurance and pocket the premiums for a while". That's exactly how MOMO trading is like options. < The trend tends to feed on itself. This is standard procedure in futures trading isn't it ?> I suppose so... but then one should look at the long term trend in the dollar... no? <Consider, for example, how an investor in American stocks could have benefited if his US stock holdings had been supported by a long looney future (i.e. short US$) in the past year.> Right... exactly. Short dollar US vs Loonie... not the other way around. That's been an obvious play for many years, and not likely to changed because of a shape on a chart. DAK