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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (89169)	11/25/2007 7:02:44 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The phenomenom FerFAL described in his intriguing pieces is not unique to Argentina. Most of Latin America experiences vicious street crime to varying degrees. miamiherald.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (89169)	11/25/2007 10:25:45 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Argentina was a different situation because they issued debt in a currency they could not print (USD). good point. they aren't analogous situations. the problem is similar in that we have debt we can't service. we're going to try to print our way out of it. they couldn't do that. but the rest of the world may not accept our trying to inflate away our debts. if that happens, our interest rates should start heading north in a hurry, which with all of our debt will cause many of the same problems they have there. our society may not have an identical implosion, but we're going to have some fireworks. I expect quite a bit of civil unrest and much higher crime. I hope we don't have Argentina-type problems, but I'm not convinced it won't happen.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (89169)	11/26/2007 10:02:35 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Argentinian crisis was caused by a debt default and removal of the 1:1 dollar peg. US crisis will be caused by the debt default and loss of the reserve status of the US dollar. Which is worse ? Both scenarios constitute a debt default and result in very high inflation and collapse of living standards. But losing reserve currency status will result in much greater inflation and decline in living standards than just losing the peg. IMO the US will suffer fate much worse. Although at the end the US economy will still be in much better shape than Argentina was, simply because the starting point is so much higher, but the magnitude and relativity of the decline of the US economy will be much worse than Argentina's.