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To: LLCF who wrote (53486)11/27/2007 3:15:42 PM
From: Rocket Red  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78410
 
U.S. recession clouds darkening

Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Goldman Sachs now puts the odds of a U.S. recession next year at 40 per cent to 45 per cent, up from an earlier 30 per cent, citing the worsening housing slump.
And as house prices continue to spiral downward, it sees “increased evidence of spillovers from housing to consumption,” with rising mortgage credit losses triggering a “broad-based tightening of credit availability.”
As a result, it expects combined U.S. household and business spending to contract slightly in the first half of 2008, as well as a 3 per cent decline in after-tax profits for the year.
That should prompt the Federal Reserve to cut its federal funds rate target to 3 per cent by mid-2008, compared with an earlier Goldman forecast of 4 per cent.
“Although Fed officials have given no signs that they plan to ease significantly further, we expect them to change their minds as the housing-related damage becomes more visible in data, anecdotal reports about business activity, and/or conditions in financial markets remain strained,” Goldman contends.

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