First of all, unemployment has not be going down steadily. Like the crime rate it dropped a little then stopped.
Hard to drop a whole lot more.
Secondly, it doesn't measure those who are entering the labor force for the first time and can't get jobs.
Yes it does. They are part of the overall statistic, and also separate stats are kept by age group.
Thirdly, it doesn't measure those people who got benefits for six months but couldn't find a new job during that time
Yes it does, as I've already pointed out in my posts here. They unemployment stats are based on a survey, not on people coming in to unemployment offices (who might stop when they no longer have benefits waiting for them)
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"Because unemployment insurance records, which many people think are the source of total unemployment data, relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey."
bls.gov
How are the unemployed counted in other countries?
The sample survey system of counting the unemployed in the United States is also used by many foreign countries, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Japan, and all of the countries in the European Economic Community...
bls.gov
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, and persons not in the labor force.
bls.gov
Chapter 1.
Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey
Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analyzes and publishes statistics on the labor force, employment, and unemployment, classified by a variety of demographic, social, and economic characteristics. These statistics are derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS. This monthly survey of the population uses a sample of households that is designed to represent the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States.
bls.gov
Chapter 1.
Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey
Collection Methods
Each month, during the calendar week containing the 19th day, interviewers contact a “responsible” person in each of the sample households in the CPS. At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer visits the household and prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, ethnic origin, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationship to the person maintaining the household. The interviewers enter this information into laptop computers. This roster is then checked for accuracy and brought up to date at each subsequent interview to take account of new or departed residents, changes in marital status, and similar items. The information on personal characteristics is thus available each month for identification purposes and for cross-classification with economic characteristics of the sample population.
Personal visits are preferred in the first month in which the household is in the sample. In other months, the interview generally is conducted by telephone. Approximately 70 percent of the households in any given month are interviewed by telephone. A portion of the households (10 percent) is interviewed via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), from three centralized telephone centers (located in Hagerstown, MD; Jeffersonville, IN; and Tucson, AZ) by interviewers who also use a computerized questionnaire.
At each monthly visit, a series of standard questions on labor market activity during the preceding week is asked about each household member 15 years of age and older. (As previously mentioned, the official labor force estimates pertain to those aged 16 and older.) The primary purpose of these questions is to classify the sample population into the three basic economic groups: The employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force.
bls.gov
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