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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	11/29/2007 9:20:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217560

<<What'cha gonna do IF there is no collaps?>> ... go net short on Bernanke spike, and use fiat moolah to buy gold.

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	11/30/2007 9:15:35 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217560

Hello Pezz, Today’s Report: (1) Following on to selling equities in Canada and USA, I sold, and got out of equities in first Australia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, and South Africa; (2) I exchanged the resulting AUD, Baht, SGD and ZAR for USD; (3) I retained the resulting HKD in HKD; (4) I sold CHF (originally gotten by way of swapping from Euro) for USD; (5) I swapped Yen for USD; and (6) I exchanged USD for 3 and 6 months USD T-bills. I may also buy some GLD tonight and put some HKD to good use. The idea is simple: GoToCash, but make sure the paper has my name on it so that should the financial asset custodian bite the bankruptcy apple, the T-bills indisputably belong to me. I fear we are no longer in any position to think about gains, for there will be preciously few opportunities, with the possible exception of gold; I suspect we are well into the time to prepare for losses, and so it is best to be able to recover from losses of all possible sort; Assuming inflation of everything we need is at 12% per annum rate, the 1% haircut we take each month is cheap compared to the possible cataclysmic downside at this juncture; and In any case, I still have 10% energy shares (overshot my target of reducing equity to 12% - oh well), and I have physical gold, platinum, and I have paper silver. So, the order of battle now is as below: Cash @ 54.5% (8.2% CAD, 29.8% HKD, 16.5% USD in 3-6 mths T-bills) Bonds @ 1.7% Physical gold & platinum @ 9% Rental real estate @ 24.7% Equity (all Canadian energy, except a bit of SLV, and about 1% in the negative bet that is my new way to wager on the empire's future finance.yahoo.com :0) @ 10.1% Chugs, TJ P.S. Whatever is heading this way, we are not familiar with it, and so to stand still and greet it face to face close may be ill advised. Remember, lonely path is the right way, so as to survive, allowing fighting another day, when chaos will be a gift, crisis a partner, and volatility a friend. Mean time, the market will screw the greatest number in the harshest way at the most inconvenient time, and not even bother to step over the bodies.

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	12/3/2007 12:20:27 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217560

Hello Pezz, Tonight's Report: Bought a whole mind searingly lot of GLD finance.yahoo.com at and below 77.73. I think the price is a good one. Time will tell. Chugs, TJ

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	12/7/2007 7:28:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217560

hello pezz, last night's report: i bought the gold (GLD) dip, admittedly a rather large buy on a not as exciting dip. I am figuring that all the current bull news on employment, housing, credit paper, bail out organization, risk deduction, etc is all bullcrap, to be concurrently faded and taken advantage of. chugs, tj p.s. settling in yet in santa monica? why the move back? buying house or wait?

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	12/11/2007 12:26:32 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217560

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: Following on to this Message 24103806 add in USA, I further increased my real money allocation to 17% of gross asset via HK paper gold via the bank. Yes, the pace of change in my portfolio is rather rapid, more than I am used to, and now I am treating gold as good as cash, literally. I still do not yet feel secure, but will have to wait now and see, and maybe perhaps possibly action once again when your markets open, to ramp holdings to 20% even, as the world turns and spirals into cataclysmic financial reckoning day. Chugs, TJ

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	12/11/2007 12:50:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217560

Hello Pezz, Today's Second Report: I hesitated about this Message 24124053 , couldn't wait, and so upped allocation to 20% even, and am now concerned, though somewhat comforted that the world's central banks are working for me. Chugs, TJ

To: pezz who wrote (25849)	12/17/2007 7:16:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217560

Hello Pezz, Early Morning Report: (a) Got the Coconut dressed for school, a mish mesh of her favorite pieces meticulously selected within the span of a dozen seconds or so, purple cords, white shirt, green sweater, laddybug socks, favorite sneakers, and a tip of the hat to fashion, a Burberry poncho, all for some sort of a Christmas party day at school; (b) Eventually heading into office for a light day of puttering around, admin day, interrupted by lunch with friends and dinner with friends; (c) Ought to receive today the 5th of my nine monthly checks to exit a poor private equity idea and when so, I give my 5th thanks of the year; (d) Now at monitor, having just noticed that all them currencies I sold went down against the USD, more so than the gold I bought, and the CAD I held is holding against the USD. So far, so good. (e) Reflected on the state of USA real estate, and am alarmed, realizing that we are only just about 5% into the new era of downward repricing. Am also thankful that I had sold back in April of 2006 and had turned the proceeds into Euro, AUD, CAD and paper gold, and then turned the Euro to CHF, and AUD to Yen, and then everything from everything except CAD to USD, hesitated, got paper gold back. All is well that ends well. Advise - wait before you get a place in Santa Monica. Chugs, TJ P.S. much to give thanks for 2007. <<What'cha gonna do IF there is no collaps?>> ... everything had, is and will collapse against gold. From e-mail tray, From the Herb Greenberg piece: blogs.marketwatch.com >>Now, with all the exotic programs gone, a household income of $175,000 is needed to buy that same home, which is about 10% of the Bay Area households. And, inventories are up 500%. So, in a nutshell we have 90% fewer qualified buyers for five-times the number of homes. To get housing moving again in Northern California, either all the exotic programs must come back, everyone must get a 100% raise or home prices have to fall 50%. None, except the last sound remotely possible. Assuming Fed is interested in preventing significant bank failures above all else: 1. Not good for banks if asset backing their loans decreases in value by 50%. 2. Desire then is not to see value of the collateral drop. 3. Assuming a price decrease of 50% in real terms for housing, an inflation rate of 12% over 5 years would make that up; that is would reduce $100k to $52K at the end of the 5 year period in constant dollars... so essentially you would get no appreciation in housing values, everything else would catch up in price... and the banks collateral value would be protected. Is this in effect what is being engineered now? This would fit with Bernake's reticence in congressional testimony. He cant really come out and say this can he? "We are going to sacrifice the value of your currency to protect our stockholders assets and solvency (the banks).". This seems to be the road we are on, and would explain the MO, and the path ahead.