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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: aerosappy who wrote (94190)12/3/2007 1:55:52 PM
From: Umunhum  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 206160
 
Crude continues its fall from near triple-digit prices this morning and is now down ~11% since topping $99/Bbl just one week ago. The largest weekly decline in over two years was due in part to expectations that a slowing U.S. economy will reduce demand expectations. Now that prices have fallen below $90/Bbl, OPEC may decide to leave production levels flat when it meets on Wednesday December 5 in Abu Dhabi.

I'm amazed at how resilient the price of crude oil has been after this latest run up. If you look at the current future strip:

futuresource.quote.com

The lowest priced contract that actually traded today is the December 2010 at $83.16. A whopping $2.84 off its high water mark of $86. This is hardly a sell-off.

futuresource.quote.com

My favorite stocks are all down about 20% from their highs but my commodity account has barely dipped. I doubt OPEC has any spare capacity. The last increase was a joke allocating 30,000 barrels of the production increase to Indonesia if my memory is correct. Somebody should tell OPEC that Indonesia is a net importer and that their production has already peaked. I think we are near the bottom and expect things to rise sharply after the OPEC and Fed meetings.

I jumped in a little early going on margin but I expect to be rewarded handsomely over the next 6 weeks. I try to stay focused on the big picture and not let the short term gyrations bother me.

For those that have a short memory, here is the big picture:

research.cibcwm.com

It is only a matter of time until we break $100.