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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ruffian who wrote (250512)	12/4/2007 2:05:56 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

if nothing else it lays the groundwork for better relations. The model being followed is trust buy verify as with NK. Finally bush may have morphed into reagan. We are all speculating here and we may be way off base BUT it seems to me that the iranians may have expressed interest in a normalization deal (yet to come) based on success of the surge in iraq more than anything else. I have been saying for the longest time that iran's shiaa arc is as much defensive as offensive. They were almost done in during the war with the saddams iraq. Stability in iraq is very important to iran whether its federal state or three state division.. Civil war in iraq just to bog down the US makes no sense. Al quaeda gone, demoogogs like chavez and perhaps ahmadijad losing favor while folks like syrians begin to moderate. A deal is needed and that deal will focus the west and middle east on the true source of our fears which is al quaeda, particularly in pakistan/afganistan and funded in saudi arabia. If peace breaks out it even gives saudi some cover to reform and confront bin laden.

To: Ruffian who wrote (250512)	12/4/2007 2:29:35 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Agree. I think the NIE was choreographed, orchestrated, part of a plan whose outlines we can barely perceive. I have a lot of trouble believing any NIE issued for public consumption has any intelligence value whatsoever. For intelligence to be valuable, it has to be secret. A public NIE is a contradiction in terms, an oxymoron. I see the NIEs which are issued for public consumption as political instruments, designed to do something. This one was specifically designed to take the heat off Iran. And it was issued because W said 'go ahead.' Bush for reasons we can only guess at has decided to let Iran off the hook. But it came with a price Iran had to pay, you can be assured of that. There was otherwise no reason to issue it.