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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Kern who wrote (89391)	12/5/2007 8:32:57 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 110194

"Fed President Janet Yellen publicly expressed frustration that previous rate cuts haven't encouraged banks to lend to one another." Hey Janet......ever seen a frustrated retail consumer that trusts the banks? So why are they suddenly supposed to trust each other? I don't get it. No, actually I don't want it. I do my part every time I go to my own bank on "Main St" and they want me to get involved in one of their new concoctions. I just look straight faced at the teller, who is usually under 50 years old so in my books they don't know anything anyways, and I say....."I have learned through life to do precisely the opposite of what my bank suggests I do with my money and that way I serve my own interests and that's how I got rich...you can do it too" and " You don't really think the bank has my interests at heart do you?" If everyone would do this then the banks would stop developing new IV's and fire their marketing firms. I have the solution to the whole problem and I will sell it to the highest bidder from any big bank.......aw OK here it is free.......DON'T TELL YOUR CUSTOMERS TO BUY ON CREDIT UNLESS THEY HAVE AN EXACT EQUAL AMOUNT IN SAVINGS TO COVER IT" and let the recession come, it's good for America. When everyone stops buying on credit the worlds population will decrease and with it all the problems plaguing the planet. When capitalism is destroyed the environment will celebrate. Ok what the hell am I talking about? This....example. I live in Vancouver the most insecure city on earth. People here are convinced that more and more and more people need to come here to fill jobs to build more and more housing to fill the needs of more and more people and so on and on. Well.......this is stupid because the place is totally unlivable now because capitalists who don't care about anything other than increasing their customer base are ruining everything that was ever good about Vancouver by cramming the sardines into smaller and smaller areas. The people who are in favor of growth should be shot on sight! Growth destroys. Whoever said that population needs to increase? Only the capitalists at McDonalds and Starbucks who thrive on larger markets AND the stupid ignorant morons who fall for the schemes of corporate Canada and America. N. America desperately needs a solution to over-population. Here's one: Hey its either us or the innocent animals being sent to extinction and the worlds eco systems that were not in trouble at all 50 years ago when the earths population was less than half of what it is now. Really what gives anyone the right to claim that more people is a good thing just so they can make more money and live in a bigger mansion? Those people deserve to be in a jail cell for treason against humanity Contrast this with Australia who has decided that the population should be capped around 20 million people for a country bigger than the size of the USA. How come they have an excellent quality of life without creating a bigger market? huh ? huh?

To: Paul Kern who wrote (89391)	12/5/2007 8:47:04 PM
From: anachronist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Shallow first-half recession seen for U.S. economy tinyurl.com SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A recession looms for the U.S. economy in the first half of 2008 due to faltering consumer spending and nonresidential construction, which have so far helped offset the housing slump, a report released on Wednesday said. "Some of the fundamentals that helped prop up the economy in 2007 are beginning to look shaky," said the forecast report from Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research in Orange, California. The Anderson Center anticipates real gross domestic product will shrink by 1.0 percent in the first quarter and by 1.9 percent in the second quarter, said Esmael Adibi, the center's director. The U.S. economy will recover in the second half, but its growth will be slow and full-year growth will only be 0.9 percent, said Adibi, adding that nonresidential construction will no longer offset the home-building downturn. Total private construction spending will shrink next year by $125 billion, compared with an expected $91 billion drop this year, Adibi told Reuters in a telephone interview. He sees construction payrolls thinning further along with mortgage industry and real estate services payrolls because of credit tightening in the aftermath of surging subprime mortgage delinquencies and as more Alt-A mortgage borrowers trend toward foreclosure. At the same time, home prices will fall further, reducing the paper wealth of home owners and limiting their ability to use home equity gains to support their spending. Consumer spending will decline in real terms by 1 to 1.5 percent in the first half of next year before rebounding with growth of about 1 percent in the second half, Adibi said. U.S. exports will grow rapidly thanks to the weak dollar and demand from emerging markets, but that will not make up for the ripple effect of shrinking construction and consumer spending, Adibi said. He expects a $130 billion drop next year in home-equity borrowing, which cuts into spending on big-ticket goods that often fill new homes. He also sees the recent credit tightening growing more pervasive and cutting into business investment. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may do little to reverse the drag that will follow reduced consumer spending as long as banks hold back on credit, Adibi said. "It's not going to cure it. It's going to help but the housing downturn will continue through 2008," Adibi said. Adibi expects the benchmark overnight federal funds rate to be cut by a full percentage point through next year in quarter-point increments, taking it down to 3.5 percent. The U.S. jobs market will be sleepy next year, with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 0.2 percent as the unemployment rate for the year rises to 5.2 percent, Adibi added. The housing market slump will curb growth with foreclosures rising sharply from already-high levels, the number of unsold homes swelling more and housing starts falling for a third consecutive year to about 1.1 million, the lowest since 1991. After a projected drop of 2.1 percent this year, the median price for the resale of a single-family detached home will decline 4.8 percent next year, Adibi predicted. "There is further deterioration next year from this year," Adibi said. "Many people were talking about the housing market bottoming out next year, but that's not happening."