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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Umunhum who wrote (94281)	12/5/2007 10:38:47 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206159

The 'dip in demand' part was badly thought out, I admit. Should have said simply 'dip in imports'. I meant to say that, going forward, the OECD nations may import even less thanks to a recession, conservation measures, etc,. This would of course be reflective of their own demand. Assuming a fall in overall production, price would still be high, as you suggest, because demand is not falling in the non-OECD countries. It is doing the opposite. And supply, overall, is down.

To: Umunhum who wrote (94281)	12/5/2007 12:58:58 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206159

Your entire premise is mistaken as demand for oil (at least in the US) is horribly inelastic. That said, gasoline demand basically flat from '06. Also, as has been pointed out over and over on this board, the diesel problem in China is related to government price controls on the fuel, not to fundamental shortages. Brazil's discovery should have no impact on oil prices for a very long time. "The price of oil is going into the triple digits" Someday, I'm sure you'll be right. In the meantime, energy will underperform the rest of the market, especially tech. I'm surprised you didn't say we were past peak oil to support your bullish view. Not a believer?

To: Umunhum who wrote (94281)	4/23/2008 8:42:13 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206159

I think that oil prices are going a lot higher and the value of paper currencies is going to continue to deteriorate. The price of oil is going into the triple digits. I don’t know how far but I am extremely confident that we will be above $100 by this time next year. I am thinking $120 by summer. After studying the oil market for years, I am of the mindset that it is not a question of whether you should take your last dollar and invest it in energy stocks, but how much leverage you should employ in doing so :o). I am also starting to become a big believer in gold. In the past I thought it would go up but now I think it is going to go up dramatically to 3k –5k an ounce over the next 5 - 8 years. You were certainly right back in December about oil and I think will be shown right about gold. The only nit I would pick is that you may have been too conservative about oil. On the other hand, who would have thought that the Fed would trash the dollar as severely as it has? Oil and gold, the way to go. Coal, too. OilDrum has an excellent, no, magnificent, article theoildrum.com on the coming demise of the giant Saudi field. You no doubt have read it.