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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (94284)	12/5/2007 1:03:37 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206159

the OECD nations may import even less thanks to a recession, conservation measures, etc,. I've been reading about an impending recession caused by the high price of oil since 2004 when crude first broke $40. As I stated in my last post, I believe that oil prices have to rise high enough to cause a recession to stop demand growth. I think most people including the media haven't figured out that price is the "dog" and demand is the "tail" not the other way around. And now it looks like a rate cut is a virtual certainty. Cheap money is going to cause the price of crude to continue to go up. A look at this weeks DOE report: eia.doe.gov Crude Oil down 8 million barrels to 305.2 Gasoline up 4 million barrels to 200.6 Distillates up 1.4 million barrels to 132.3 Net net a 2.4 million barrel draw. I wonder how low inventories can go before we start having shortages. And once the shortages start appearing we will have hoarding which will exacerbate the situation. Oil prices can easily spike $30 a barrel during this heating season or next year's driving season. A jump of that magnitude would increase the earnings of the unhedged producers by about 50%. I think a price spike is a virtual certainty. I just don't know when it is going to happen. I also think a recession is a certainty.