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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: octavian who wrote (1832)	12/8/2007 8:02:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

Core inflation is 1.9%. Headline inflation, what matters is higher. I heard Brinker slip over the cover-up today when he said he has been "arguing all along" that "core inflation" would not go up due to higher priced oil. That is not true and I wish Honey's quotes of Brinker were not deleted as he said the low 1.0% inflation reset for the ibonds PROVED he was right. IBonds are based on CPI HEADLINE inflation, not core inflation. Brinker has changed his tune. Today he nearly said again "I said all along that higher oil prices were ...." then instead of saying "not inflationary" he stumbled and changed it to something new like "I said all along that higher oil prices were counter to economic growth." Well, duh... I would not have argued with him on that because it is true. Higher prices for ANYTHING slows growth. The whole basis of econ 101 is supply and demand. A growing economy provides increased demand. That pushes prices up until they find equilibrium. But I digress, he CHANGED what he said he has been saying today. CPI inflation IS HIGH now at over 3%. He tried to make it sound like the core at 1.9% was LOW inflation but the truth is it is the upper end of what economists think is acceptable for a healthy economy so it too is high. He is sort of... or is... LYING to his audience with statistics rather than admit he made a mistake. Higher prices is inflationary. Just look at how the CPI is constructed and there is no argument from anyone who understands how to add and subtract. What the people on TV argue is what causes higher prices (inflation).... That argument requires all economists to have two arms because it is mostly a chicken and egg deal.

To: octavian who wrote (1832)	12/8/2007 8:10:21 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2121

What IS funny and perhaps explains why I listen is Brinker has been right on many important things, such as being fully invested since 2003, but neither he or some like you can admit he is wrong on some very obvious things. I wish I saved the MP3 of his statement that the low inflation component for the IBond reset PROVED he was right about higher priced oil was not inflationary. I do recall I posted a chart here soon after showing that the price of oil actually went down year over year so of course there would be no inflationary pressure from oil prices on the iBond CPI component....