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To: Road Walker who wrote (362057)12/10/2007 7:30:37 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1588366
 
Ms. Winfrey noted that some say Mr. Obama should “wait his turn.” But, she said, “I wouldn’t be where I am if I waited on the people who told me it couldn’t be.” The audience erupted with applause.

December 9, 2007, 6:59 pm

Oprahpalooza in South Carolina

By Katharine Q. Seelye



COLUMBIA, S.C. — It was a staggering sight. Upwards of 29,000 people at a political rally. And the Democratic primary in South Carolina is not until Jan. 26.

The Double O Express — Oprah for Obama — drew what is easily the biggest crowd at a campaign event, for any candidate, so far this season. It may have helped that the day was unseasonably warm, above 70 degrees, and gorgeously sunny. But this size crowd is rare even for a general election in the fall. (JFK drew about 35,000 for a Labor Day rally in 1960; get to work, Caucus readers, and tell us if you know of a bigger campaign rally without an incumbent president.)
This event, which was moved to the University of South Carolina’s football stadium to accommodate the crowd, drew mostly African-Americans and, it seemed, more women than men.
About half of the state’s Democratic primary voters are black, and more than half of them are women. So Oprah Winfrey certainly seems to have reached the intended audience, one who will be pivotal to the primary.

And Ms. Winfrey knew her audience. From the moment she stepped on stage — to Aretha Franklin’s “Think” — she established a connection. Referring to her upbringing in Mississippi and Tennessee, she said: “I know something about growing up in the South and know about what it means to come from the South and be born in 1954.”

She did not spell out that 1954 was the year of the landmark Supreme Court decision in Brown vs. Board of Education that desegregated the public schools, but it is a year with resonance in American racial history.

Nor did she explicitly acknowledge that she was addressing a largely black audience about a black candidate. Rather, she spoke, in a somewhat raspy voice, with understood aspiration. “It’s just amazing grace that I get to stand here on this South Carolina stage to talk about the man who’s going to be the next president of the United States,” she said. Mr. Obama, she said, “speaks to the potential inside every one of us.”

Ms. Winfrey noted that some say Mr. Obama should “wait his turn.” But, she said, “I wouldn’t be where I am if I waited on the people who told me it couldn’t be.” The audience erupted with applause.'

Her low-key approach to the fact that Mr. Obama is black reflected in his own low-key approach to the issue. This was very different from the much more explicit rallies for Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, African-American candidates for the Democratic nomination in past elections.

Those who saw Ms. Winfrey speak in Iowa on Saturday said that she appeared more comfortable here, even though the venue was a giant stadium that seats 80,000. She made a remark about what Southern humidity can do to a girl’s hair. And when she spoke of “The Autobiography of Miss Jane Pittman,” there was a knowing response from her listeners.

In perhaps her most overt racial reference, and a diversion from the Iowa script, Ms. Winfrey said here: “Dr. King dreamed the dream. But we don’t have to just dream the dream anymore. We get to vote that dream into reality.”

While the crowd went wild for her, they were subdued for moments of her 18-minute speech, when she read from a prepared text from behind a lectern. She reflected the awkwardness of delivering the necessary but canned lines and read through them quickly.

The big question remains whether she can transfer her own popularity to Mr. Obama, which may never be known.
Her appearance today coincides with a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll that puts Mr. Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, his chief rival, in a statistical tie in South Carolina. But a rally as large as this, and with its extensive publicity, could prove reassuring to Obama supporters who are worried that a black man cannot win.

For her part, Ms. Winfrey at once downplayed her influence but pointed to the special nature of Mr. Obama’s candidacy.
“People are thinking, is this going to be like my book club?” she said. “I’ve got some sense,” she said, suggesting to the crowd that she was not expecting them to follow her blindly. At the same time, she added: “I know the difference between a book club and this seminal moment in our history.”

Most people here to whom the Caucus spoke said they were already Obama supporters.

Michella Troy, 36, a programmer analyst, said she came for both Ms. Winfrey and Mr. Obama. “He’s making sure that things are being addressed,” she said of Mr. Obama. “He’s focused on the middle class and not on the rich.” Ms. Winfrey, she said, can help motivate people.
Ms. Troy and her friend, Deitra Golson, 39, who works at the post office, said they were both eager to vote for an African-American. “We’re excited about making history,” Ms. Golson said.
Vernelle Heyward, 51, a homemaker who drove from Beaufort, said she was already supporting Mr. Obama, saying “he has our interest at heart.” Like many others, she said she was glad Ms. Winfrey was here for Mr. Obama but she doubted she would influence many votes.
Among white voters, Elizabeth Montgomery, 55, a teacher who drove almost three hours from Pawley’s Island, said she had been a volunteer for Mr. Obama long before Ms. Winfrey announced her endorsement. “He’s the only one who will bring real change, and I trust his judgment,” Ms. Montgomery said, adding that he had won her over with his opposition to the war in Iraq.
And David Clyburn, 75, a retired United Methodist clergyman, said he respected Ms. Winfrey for supporting a senator from her own state, Illinois. “She’s not a hired Hollywood gun,” he said. But he, too, had already made up his mind to support Mr. Obama, and had already persuaded his daughter, Debra Lyles, 49, director of child and family services at a community mental health center, to support him, too.
Among the undecideds was A. Jewell Moore, 61, a project manager for public schools. She said she liked Mrs. Clinton, too, and would have a tough time making up her mind. She said Ms. Winfrey would not influence her decision. But she came today to show her daughter, Savannah, 14, who wants to be a lawyer, that she could be up on a stage like Ms. Winfrey and Mr. Obama some day herself.
Ms. Winfrey, Mr. Obama and his wife, Michelle, exited the stage to an interesting tune: Stevie Wonder singing “Signed, Sealed, Delivered.”

thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com



To: Road Walker who wrote (362057)12/10/2007 7:58:12 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1588366
 
Clinton shouldn't worry about just IA

Posted: Sunday, December 09, 2007 8:50 AM by Chuck Todd
Filed Under: Democrats, 2008, Polls

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro

With just 24 days to go before Iowa, it appears the race for the Democratic nomination is no longer a tight 1-state contest, but a truly competitive race across the country.

In three new MSNBC/McCLATCHY/Mason-Dixon polls of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the national frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, leads in all three states but her lead is not outside the margin of error in any of those states. Her largest lead is three points, statistically insignificant. Her leading challenger, Barack Obama is nipping at her heels, trailing in Iowa by 2 points and trailing in New Hampshire and South Carolina by just three points.

John Edwards is a major factor in Iowa and South Carolina but trails badly in New Hampshire.

Iowa: Clinton nabbed 27%, followed by Obama at 25% and Edwards at 21%. No other candidate scored double-digits, including Richardson who came in at 9% and Joe Biden who rec'd 5%. As for the all-important second-choice category, all three Dem frontrunners are tied, with 30% picking Obama, 29% naming Clinton and 27% selecting Edwards.

New Hampshire: This is the tightest result for any New Hampshire Dem primary poll this year. Clinton gets 30% to Obama's 27%. Edwards barely cracks double-digits with 10%, with one in five primary voters undecided.

South Carolina: Clinton gets 28% to Obama's 25%. Edwards is a competitive third at 18%. [Note: An earlier version of this post accidentally reprinted the results from N.H.]

A few more macro observations about the surveys:
-- Bill Clinton is still VERY popular among Democrats, in most cases, more popular than all of the actual contenders, though Obama matches the FPOTUS in FAV rating in New Hampshire.
-- Hillary Clinton wins the experience issue by a landslide in all three states, while Obama wins decisively on change.
-- Hillary Clinton's support is what you'd expect: women, folks over 50 and union members.
-- Obama does very well among Democrats under 50. In fact, the biggest demographic gap is generational, not gender.
-- And here's a trend line the Clinton folks might want to worry about, in all three states, she's seen as having run the most negative campaign to date.

Let's get into the weeds of these Dem state polls, all of which were conducted Dec. 3-6. Each survey is of 400 likely caucus or primary voters with a margin of error of 5%.

IOWA
Don't write off John Edwards. Of the big 3 candidates, the former North Carolina senator has the highest FAV rating, trailing only Bill Clinton in popularity. This could bode well on the second choice front.

Clinton is seen as the least honest and trustworthy and the candidate who least represents change. That's bad news for her because those are the two top things that Iowans are looking for. Her advantage is on issues and experience, a category in which she leads by a whopping 52% to 14% margin over Richardson.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
How much progress has Obama made in this state? He's now the Democrat with the highest FAV rating (matching Bill Clinton).

Like Iowa, Hillary leads among women, but a quarter of women are undecided. Can Oprah make a difference for Obama here? Obama's support is overwhelmingly among independents and those under 50.

Also of note, we tested potential 2-way Dem primary matchups between Clinton and Obama and then Clinton v. Edwards. Edwards voters break overwhelmingly for Clinton in New Hampshire, while Obama voters break nearly 3-1 for Edwards. If Clinton and Edwards are sharing some supporters, doesn't that signal that those two may begin going after each other more so than Obama, gambling that the Illinois senator's support is younger and less likely to vote?

Looking at what voters most want in a candidate, Obama leads overwhelmingly on change and is seen as more honest than Clinton. That's good news for him, because those are two of the top three things voters are looking for in a candidate. Issues, though, is No. 1 and Clinton leads that by 12 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Obama may have dispelled those doubts among black voters, as he leads Clinton by 16 points among African-Americans. But among whites, Clinton leads by 16.

It's the same story here as the other two states, Hillary is seen as the least honest and trustworthy and doesn't represent change. Obama leads in both of those categories. Clinton leads overwhelmingly again on experience, but as in the other states, experience doesn't appear to be all that important to voters. She is seen as most right on the issues, which is important.

firstread.msnbc.msn.com