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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/12/2007 11:20:07 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78826

Names. Good idea about posting favorites. You are right about KONA not looking cheap at first glance. The trouble is that all stocks get nowadays is a glance. I looked, and I don't see your attraction. But I am a lazy investor. I did not listen to the cc. But looked around their website, glanced at the financial stmts, read their optimistic outlook and saw that they were "very pleased" with their financial results of 3 cents a share. Huh? (And the only reason I went that far was because you posted.) This stock is ugly. What will attract others to buy this stock and when will it happen? And insiders don't seem to be overly thrilled about the company stock. I respect your analysis but don't see it here. :o( biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Since even great looking stocks get nailed in a down market, to own a stock that is ugly at first glance is asking for trouble. I'll post my idea in a bit...

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 12:05:56 AM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78826

favorites.... well, some changes since here: Message 23923973 I lowered TDW VLO and trusts., but over all I am satisfied with my mix. I was up 30% ytd on oct 31, but now only +18% YTD. Of course, happy to be there with REITS dropping this year. If favorites are measured by $$$ held, my favorites are ACAS, oil sands, and REITs. Reits were overvalued a year ago, but now may be the time to buy a few. I have been upping my bet here. finance.yahoo.com Here is a list to get a diversified mix. -- Office: HRP, BDN, and possibly PKY CLI. -- Mixed: DRE and possibly LXY. -- Industrial: FR. -- Health: MPW. -- Retail: RPT., and possibly PEI, CBL. -- Lodging HPT, maybe FCH. -- Residential: not great, but UDR and SUI are probably the best. I own a small amount. --- (HRP is the best of the whole lot.) My main criteria is Price/FFO. ..... Back to which stock to recommend... TRN. Profitable. 50% railroad business, which is slowing down, but they expect to remain nicely profitable. I am underwater on this one. "Trinity expects to post a profit of $3.10 per share to $3.50 per share next year on flat revenue. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of $3.64 per share, on average." They expect railcar and barge builds to increase 2008. We'll hope and see. The point to aging railcar and barge fleets. check their presentation: trin.net got some idiot buying a lot of shares: finance.yahoo.com $27.40 / $3.20 = 8 1/2 PE. I think it is a solid company. Nice ROE, clean balance sheet, cash flow, etc. I like the long term outlook for rail and barges given that I expect energy prices to continue to increase. finance.yahoo.com

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 12:22:16 AM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78826

whoops. those insider trades may have been 2006.

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 12:41:48 AM
From: Kevyn Collins-Thompson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78826

It's been a while since I've posted any "best idea" here on SI.. almost three years? (That was CCL Industries, a very boring but very undervalued Canadian packaging company.) So I'm sorry to say that for the first time I have no stocks I'd be willing to recommend in public as "likely for substantial gains next year" from my own portfolio. I am keeping only four long-term long positions in my stock portfolio: RNR (held 10 years), FR (held 8 years), MSFT (held 15 years), TRMD (held 4 years). I do reserve the right as a radical value investor to continue shorting certain financial stocks :-) Some of the best value I see now is in commodities (this was long before I heard of Jim Rogers) and that's where I intend to switch most of my investing for the long-term. I do still intend to be involved in the stock market, but I'd be interested to correspond with anyone else who is also making the switch from stocks to soybeans... Kevyn

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 7:31:21 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78826

my favorite ideas continue to be plg.to and sil. both speculative. Ive discussed them at length here in the past. I believe the cheapest stock I own is a uranium company in Mongolia kri.to. The uranium is there, a lot of the infrastructure is there. It had been developed in the past by the russians, and management is very experienced in the uranium business. whats needed now is a formal feasability study and financing. But most important and the reason the stock has tanked from over $5 to $1.40 is the waffling of local govt regarding how they want to regulate and tax mining and specifically uranium. The fear is that the waffling will go on so long that by the time the mine sees production there will be oversupply of uranium and prices will crater.

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 8:15:23 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78826

OMG, pure growth investment and even one with a negative earnings through all its recorded life from Jim Clarke! I have to take a photo of this before it disappears in a puff of smoke! Pinch me, I am dreaming! :))))) Sorry Jim, just kidding. :) But also, sorry, I don't see what you see in KONA. OK, it might be spectacular growth story in Peter Lynch tradition. But come on, how can you justify buying negative earnings restaurant stock? What we lose in income, we'll make up in volume? I assume it's growing its network and the earnings are negative because of CapEx? But even then, how are you sure that once they stop CapEx'ing, they will be profitable? A lot of restaurants have managed to kill themselves while CapEx'ing. No, sorry, not for me. --------------- OK, my suggestion. Since HW and WSC are mostly beaten to death by me, I'll suggest CRDN. Nicely killed stock in a profitable high ROE company trading at low P/E. So everyone is sure that their armor is so good that it will last forever and army won't need to buy it anymore. And that USA won't go to any wars anyway come the election. At the current valuation, I am willing to risk on these, especially since CRDN has other possible growth areas. If these pan out, the stock can take out recent highs. So sure the time to buy this was at ~$5 in 2003 or $20 in 2005. But what's wrong with ~$50 in 2007? :)

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 1:34:43 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78826

i went to the website and checked out their menu. seems pretty pricey for a family. what is their target market? have you eaten at one of their restaurants? Are their steaks particularly good?

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/13/2007 11:07:46 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78826

My idea stock is PLA. Bad management (the Heffner clan) but an iconic and underexploited brand name with a licensing stream (40M$ annually). Total EV value is about 400M$. There is valuable real estate for a fraction of the current valuation on the books (Playboy mansion, which is currently inhabited by Hugh Heffner). My thinking is that Hugh finally will let go and a different management is set into place or the company is sold out. the Playboy brand alone is worth more than the current market cap in my opinion.If you consider 10x of the licensing stream only that would be worth 400M$. The publishing business is basically worthless but then we have online and TV plus the real estate. The Playboy brand is known allover the world and lends itself naturally to casino's clubs and many other things to play with :-). Years ago they damaged the brand by licensing to cheap underwear and T Shirt makers, but i think they are slowly learning. If we get a capable management i can see 20$+ easily. if current management just screws up a little less we still could get to 15$/share.

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/14/2007 9:06:58 AM
From: gcrispin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78826

My single value idea is IMOS which I have mentioned here a couple of times. The company is a Tawainese Test and Assembly company that is registered in Bermuda. They were the first T@A to set up a factory in China. First the metrics. I don't think you could find a cheaper stock based on EBIDTA to Enterprise Value. finance.yahoo.com Compare this to their competitors AMKR and SPIL finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com The company is currently projecting 75 to 80 million of Free Cash Flow and is using the proceeds to buy back a convertible they issued. Scott Black of Barrons Roundtable fame likes it. His Delphi fund is a significant shareholder and I wouldn't be surprised if he mentions it again. Here were his comments at the mid-year roundtable. Message 23629474 Short interest is decreasing. It looks like MU might have bottomed. I have been adding to my large position. nasdaq.com

To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)	12/17/2007 11:13:27 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78826

The aircraft lease stocks right now would be my favorites going into 2008. See article by Markham in rllee post. As is the way I prefer to operate, I am building a position in a package of these. Specifically I've been buying GLS and to a lesser extent (so far), AYR. The demand for aircraft apparently is still strong. Perhaps only a world recession will diminish it. (I am guessing and presuming here without real fact backup.) These companies seem to be able to get their funds for financing. Their customers are a diverse lot so the risk of a disastrous customer default (i.e. returning the planes before contract expires) is diffused. Basically I'm looking for aircraft demand to continue, and the earnings (and dividends) of the companies to increase. While waiting, both companies provide a dividend yield over 10%. (And AYR just raised its dividend.) Consequently I am looking for a total return consisting of capital gain and dividend yield. The capital gain could come from investors bidding up the stock for it high dividend yield, growth in earnings, or some other factor(s). Some caveats. "favorite going into 2008". I'm looking to buy now through maybe early 2008. I'm not expecting results in 2008. With these stocks - as with many others I am buying - I am planting now with a view for harvesting in 2009/2010. My "favorites". Generally my latest buys. For me, there's no relationship between "favorite" and "best performance". Sometimes my "favorites" work out; sometimes they do not. My best performers have always been stocks that were a surprise to me, and if I remember right, have never been my favorites at the time I bought them. "for it's high dividend yield". I considered 8% high several weeks ago; now many of my stocks are at 10%, several 12%. So it's quite possible selling in AYR, GLS might continue and could drive their "high yield" even much higher. finance.yahoo.com