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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (8590)	12/13/2007 3:00:13 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Gustave, The book has a very thought provoking premise. Obviously we are all attempting to understand the total magnitude of economic and cultural evolution which is occurring with vertigo-inducing rapidity. When we start to step back and contemplate the paradigm shifts that have occurred from the introduction of the Transistor from Bell Labs in 1947, to the introduction of the Micro chip; and then the full blown acceleration of the Information Age with the advent of the Internet and with mach speed achieved with the world wide web coming of age in past 12-14 years. I believe I heard Bill Clinton mention that when he became president there were only 8 world wide web url addresses. That's amazing. circling back around to China, the biggest task they continue to face internally is to continue to build a dynamic and meaningful middle class. With out this the country will continue to be vulnerable to potential political revolutionary overthrows of the Government. This will be tested when China experiences it's next recession and popping of their equity and real estate bubbles. Even Jimmy Rodgers, one of the biggest and most insightful believers in the Chinese economic Juggernaut, has commented that he would have to sell his longe term Chinese equity holdings if the indicies go up another 30-40% without a significant correction. The pullback since late November in China stocks is so far quite mild. From my perspective the single biggest development I am really excited about regarding China occur when they freely float the RNB and it is easily tradable on the spot market by the global capital markets as well as individuals such as you and me. I truly believe that having the RNB in the currency cross trading mix will provide really dramatic new ways for Global Capital to move around the world and it will alter the dynamic of having the JPY being the only significant major currency in Asia. Right Now The JPY is providing a central fulcrum on a daily basis for capital flows that are looking to assume greater market alpha and risk and then alternately looking to reduce risk exposures and carry trade unwinding. And obviously having the Chinese currency adjusting upward to a more classic economic equilibrium with other currencies in purchasing price pariety, with help to smooth out global trade inbalances, improve the incomes of the nascent Chinese middle class and take some of the inordinate competitive advantage that is putting so much heat on some US, Canadian, European, etc.... manufacturers and other businesses in those countries. Thanks for the Book suggestion, John