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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paxb2u who wrote (78189)	12/13/2007 12:40:58 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, I believe we've seen increased market management (read: manipulation) since 2002 bottom, which makes these markets prone to a large meltdown in a short period of time, but extremely stable against SMALL meltdowns. It is impossible to guess if it will occur now, next year, or in 2010. However, as long as the Fed keeps things afloat, the total notional value for all derivatives will keep growing exponentially. I expect 1 quadrillion by 2009 if nothing happens, currently 516 trillion (300-something in 2006), and messy ( that's why the Fed is so worried.) A hyperinflationary scenario in which these derivatives become normal without deflating is also a possibility.