Re- 'LOL You expected this tremendous swoon????'
I think he's talked about a retest of HUI 380 about 10-15 times over the last couple of months.
I also think he's posted 10-15 times about having already locked in and banked the gold stock run profits, saying that there was 'no fight to fight' and no 'trade to trade' in the HUI 380-420 range, because it would just be a volatile whipsaw (which it has been).
And I think he's also posted 10-15 times about buying puts for insurance. And also advised when you cover your puts- to 'sell puts' to discount your re-entry buys.
But, maybe I got that wrong, or maybe my memory is failing me, so let me cut and paste some 'Slider-wycki's' for you here:
And by the way, what I think he was mocking about Sinclair, is that he's been talking about Bernanke's blink and coming bluff for a couple of months now- versus, Sinclair talking about it- AFTER it happened.
Of course- since YOU mr. bearjonsey assured us here that quote/unquote: 'the Fed would not cut rates' -I'm sure that may have conveniently slipped your steel-trap like mind.
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Message 23798666
BEARJONES: 'Poole says no way there will be a rate cut!! ..only if a calamity hits and there is NONE!! LOL
Fed doesn't give a crap about a little stock market correction. Paulson doesn't even think we are going into a recession. Fed rate cut? HA!!!!!!!!! lol'
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Okay bearseyjonesy- here's the 'slider-wycki' highlight reel-
Message 23923456
From: SliderOnTheBlack 9/28/2007 5:43:00 PM
38 Recommendations Read Replies (9) of 7295
"We just had a pullback from resistance, now buy the breakout of HUI 400"
-----------------------------------------------------------
Message 24015328
To: jim_p who wrote (6813) 10/31/2007 7:56:36 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack 43 Recommendations Read Replies (13) of 7295
Bernake Blinks & Kudlow and Goldilocks on cR@cK!?!?
Cheney came out and told us in last Friday's interview
with Larry Kudlow on CNBC, what this administration's
real policy is - vis a vis the U.S. Dollar and inflation.
When he said they were watching "the blue chips" and
that the "market" should determine the direction and
value of the dollar... he basically said that the Fed
and the U.S. Treasury would:
1.Bail the banks out of their subprime & derivatives
debacles - regardless of the cost.
2.Let the Dollar continue in freefall - undefended
and abandoned...so that U.S. multi-nationals can
reap windfall profits abroad...while the U.S. economy
and people flounder at home...and the Fed can inflate
away the deficit.
3. Prop up the DOW at any cost so that the Republicans
have at least "one" economic positive on which to hang
their 2008 election hopes upon...and give Wall Street
insiders the opportunity to pass "the bag" off to the
public once again.
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[bearseyjonesy: pay particular attention to this post- it's one of my all time favorites. He even slipped in a bone on Fannie & Freddie just before they collapsed 40-60% (think you coulda made some fungolies on those Fannie/Freddie puts!) I'll bold my favorite parts on this one.
Message 24050631
"Taking chips off the table, banking profits, setting stops."
"Gold and Oil due for a correction"
Message 24036749
Personally, I'm not giving anything back sub HUI 420 and
I've been taking chips off into strength on each new upleg
per the red circles.
When you do some profit taking... take a piece of it and buy
a couple of out of the money calls on pullbacks to minimize
exposure to the pullbacks, but still retaining some exposure
and leverage to further upside.
There's 1 Trillion Dollars in Yen-carry money in this market
and much of it is in commodities. When the broad market
corrects - gold stocks have taken the hits as well.
The key here will be for HUI 400ish - the former high, to now
become new support. If it does... the run to HUI 520+ still
looks doable.
Technically, you can lock yourself in here via option
straddles and then buy the next breakout above 450/460.
It's been a great move... if the Fed is forced to bail
out subprime/derivatives and chooses to prop up the
markets... gold still has plenty of room to run. Just keep your eye on oil."
In addition to our currency indicators - here's another
key chart for trading gold stocks relative gold:
Personally, as I spoke about before... I've taken my
chips off in three waves at HUI 400, 420 and 450 and
then locked my self in - fully hedged at HUI 420.
I refuse to give back anything below 420.
So what to do here?
That all depends on where you are.
Where I am - is safely positioned, with the run
through 420 banked. I have a few puts on
gold stocks, did buy a few calls yesterday...but,
am patiently waiting for one of two things:
1. A test of that key HUI 380ish support level. At
that level I will be adding more call options and
also selling puts for premium and to discount my
re-entries.
2. A reversal here and a breakout through the
HUI 450-460 highs.
For me, everything revolves around "risk vs. reward"
and patiently waiting for "discrepancies to develop
between price and risk."
Neither gold, or gold stocks are compelling cheap here.
And neigher gold, or gold stocks offer any compelling
discrepancies between their price and the risk environment
we now find ourselves within.
This is a time to safely protect your gains, to have both
some puts and a few calls to profit on volatility in both
directions from here...and to wait for yet another carry-
trade shakeout to subside.
Gold and gold stocks are still in a positive up-trend.
The catalyst to drive gold and gold stocks to new highs
still remains Central Bankers.
This washout in the broad market has allowed two things
to occur.
1. For Wall Street insiders to bag their profits and
to pass the bag off to the public.
2. For the Fed to now have the support of the street
to once again cut rates in December.
Step aside from this volatility... there is little reward,
and much risk in trying to trade it.
The "big" and the "easy" money for this leg have already
been made.
Let the enemy continue to make his mistakes.
And be PATIENT.
Slowly add some out of the money calls in your
favorite gold and silver stocks... but, keep your eye on
the HUI 200 dma...and more importantly, the HUI 380 level.
For gold stocks to base here and stage the next move up
and through HUI 520ish... we need three things to happen.
1. For the former longterm resistance level of HUI 380 t0
now hold as new support.
2. For the Yen-carry unwind to stabilize and for gold
the metal - to maintain it's positive trendline against
all major currencies.
3. And for the U.S. Fed to once again cut rates in December
- which I think they will.
We've just had an incredible run.
Don't get greedy.
There's no battle to be fought from HUI 380-420.
Let them have it.
Be patient.
Look for bargains.
Re-enter with options... leverage your returns, but
limit your exposure.
There's nothing wrong with cash + patience here.
The BOJ isn't going to be raising rates here anytime soon
and the BOE and ECB face exporters crying uncle here and
now.
I see nothing on the horizon, or at 40,000 feet that
suggests anything other than more of the same...
Continued Global Central Bank inflation.
Now is the time to study your charts on individual
stocks. Study the fundamentals. Scrub your buy lists
for production and cost trends. Look for individual
stocks that offer discrepancies between price and risk
to their peers.
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Damn bearjones, you feeling stoopid yet? Well hell, let's pile
on some more just in case:
This may be my 2nd favorite post. This is the one where he calls Bernanke's "BLUFF"- you know, the one Sinclair talked about AFTER it happened <vbg>.
And once again, I bold the best parts:
Message 24060695
From: SliderOnTheBlack 11/16/2007 9:11:15 AM
15 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 7295
Gold, Bernanke, Ron Paul & Texas Hold 'em...
The markets are often likened to Vegas casinos. Not
an unfair comparison in my opinion, especially now,
as we are seeing quite the poker game between Gold
and U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Gold has twice called Ben Bernanke.
And twice Ben Bernanke has blinked.
Twice he has folded and cut rates.
Score: Gold 2 - Bernanke 0
Now Gold has called Bernanke for the third time by
breaking through the $800 barrier, threatening all
time highs and once again...sounding the alarm on
inflation, and out of control Central Bankers.
For true believers in sound and honest money,
the time to ante up has come once again.
You saw Bernanke's press conference yesterday.
He's going to get serious about headline inflation,
he's going to be more transparent in his forecasts,
and in his communications with the street.
Paulson at this very moment is on the hot seat,
being dressed down by G-7 central bankers for
the United States weak Dollar and competitive
devaluation policy.
And we've seen a bounce in the US Dollar, another
shake out in the Yen-carry trade, and talking points
from the usual mouth-pieces like Larry Kudlow that
this new "tough talk" from Bernanke on inflation
means -- no more rate cuts.
So what does all this mean for gold?
Gold has called Bernanke twice and both times
Bernanke has "blinked" - thrown in his cards,
folded his hand and cut rates.
Both times gold has rallied onward and upward.
But, this time... Bernanke is trying a new poker tatic.
"The Bluff"
From blink to bluff.
-- You've seen Bernanke's press conference and his new
tough talk about "headline" inflation.
-- You've seen a bounce in the US Dollar.
-- You've seen a pullback in gold and gold stocks.
-- And you've seen the "new" talking points being
diseminated by the all the usual suspects like
Larry Krulow & Company.
Bugs.... buck up.
Blinkie is bluffing.
Press conferences, tought talk (did you hear the tremble
in Bernanke's voice all during that conference?)and
talking points.
Are you going to fold - into press conferences,
tough talk and talking points?
Are you going to let Larry Kudlow & Company talk you
into believing that Bernanke has suddently grown
a set of sound monetary policy "balls"?
Are you going to fold into THAT?
Are you going to let Blinkie take your chips?
Are you going to let Blinkie bluff you
out of your cards and your golden hand?
The market and America are at a crossroads.
The inflationista's have tried to ignore Ron Paul.
The inflationista's have tried to dismiss Ron Paul.
The inflationista's have tried to discredit Ron Paul.
But, trust me they noticed....
-- that one day $4 Million Dollar fund raising campaign online.
-- Paul's ass-chewing of Bernanke on Captial Hill.
-- the millions of downloads and replays of that video.
-- and the growing groundswell of the Ron Paul Revolution.
They got the message loud and clear from both Ron Paul
and the American people.
That's what Bernake's press conference was all about.
If you think Ben Bernanke and Central Bankers have
had a "Come to Jesus" reawakening about inflation
...please.
Now I'm not saying that you load up on gold and gold
stocks and act like a blind permabull.
Not at all.
I'm saying respect your enemy.
Recognize his tactics for what they are ... tactics.
Know when to take your chips off the table and to
protect your profits... when to stand aside and follow
Napolean Bonaparte's suggestion of:
"let your enemy continue to make his mistakes"
Bernanke has learned twice that "blinking" doesn't
work. But, he's also caught between a rock and a hard
place with this credit crisis. He's using a new tactic,
one of the few he has left.
... the bluff.
Now Poker is a game of many hands.
The key is to know when to hold, when to fold
and when to go all in.
This isn't the time to go all in. This is the time
to think two hands ahead.
If you've listened... your chips are already safely
off the table and in the bank. Let Bernanke bluff,
let him recklessly throw some chips around, let him
talk tough, let him continue to "make his mistakes"
and wait patiently to move "all in" when the time
is right.
This is a time when the technicals are a tell.
... if you're watching the "right" ones.
Yen:Dollar
Watch and follow the Yen.
Gold is trading as a currency in this phase.
Bernanke & Co are trying to attack gold as money.
Let them continue to make their mistakes, let them
hold press conferences and let them talk tough.
Be patient... the time is growing ever near.
Be smart.
Protect those chips... we just got a 180 point HUI
run...do NOT give it back.
Blinkie's now bluffing.
Let this hand play out... it's not "the" all in hand.
There's no battle to be fought here form HUI 380-450,
because we've already won - and BANKED it.
Let them expend their little remaining capital and
resources on regaining this ground that we've already
won...and banked.
There is no battle here.
Re-read that.
This is not the territory we ned to be fighting for.
We've already won this battle...and hopefully,
the spoils are already in the bank.
This is a high risk/low reward environment.
Stand aside.
We've already taken the spoils here... there's
nothig to fight for from HUI 380-460.
Great poker players know when to let their opponent
think their bluff has worked and to patiently wait
for moving in for the kill.
Patience people...
Bernanke is bluffing... tough talk, press conferences.
Yada, yada, yada... let him talk his talk, because
he's never walked his talk.
Trust me - his knee's are wobbling... because he knows
what's behind the curtain... and it ain't pretty.
Let 'em bluff... our time will come.
Mo later,
S.O.T.B.
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WOW. What more needs to be said than that?
We're unworthy <vbg> and bearjonesey- you're a nitwit.
Next time- try reading what the SOB is saying and the next time you get your ass whipsawed- don't say you weren't told.
I nibbled on some silver and gold stocks today. Still holding my main powder for any test of that HUI 380 level for gold stocks and the 200 dma for Silver.
Turns out this whipsaw, volatile HUI 380-420 level was not worth fighting for was it?
Gee, I think someone told us that would be so.
Ron
And don't forget to participate in Ron Paul's TEA PARTY this SUNDAY!
teaparty07.com |
