Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (78200)	12/13/2007 2:33:56 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Not so bad -g- But yes, gold is a real bull market that goes down a lot sometimes. Bailouts and lower rates are very bullish for gold long term. Message 24131319

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (78200)	12/13/2007 3:00:07 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

There is lots of fudged statistics out there due to fudged inflation. If you look at unadjusted BLS inflation numbers, you see annual inflation of the order of 10-20%, commensurate with (magically discontinued in March 2006) money supply (M3) growth. However, after all statistical adjustments inflation goes away. It still remains "dangerously elevated", according to da Fed -g- If you take the real rate of inflation, which nobody knows, then US is in recession already. It's called "growth recession" or stagflation, with all that money causing inflation instead of real growth. Gold is usually the best investment in a stagflationary environment. All that cash goes in stocks too, but stocks usually underperform inflation. In particular, DOW/Gold ratio has dropped from 43 in 2000 to 17 now. It has a long way to go to 1, typically found at secular bear market bottoms. Actually, long term it looks more like an expanding triangle, with the ration of 2 during the Great Depression, and 1 in 1980, so it might get to 0.5 this time -ggg- "Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following: 1) Outright lying as to official statistics such as money supply, inflation or reserves. My comment: Many revisions of how we measure inflation have led to considerable decline of measured inflation over years 2) Suppression of publication of money supply statistics, or inflation indices. My comment: M3 discontinued in March 2006 3) Price and wage controls. My comment: Why are gas prices so low with oil above 90? 4) Forced savings schemes, designed to suck up excess liquidity. These savings schemes may be described as pensions schemes, emergency funds, war funds, or similar. My comment: Where, oh, where did Social Security funds go? Why are Bush wars out there? 5) Adjusting the components of the Consumer Price Index, to remove those items whose prices are rising the fastest. My comment: what is Hedonics used by BLS? None of these actions address the root causes of inflation, and in fact, if discovered, tend to further undermine trust in the currency, causing further increases in inflation. Price controls will generally result in hoarding and extremely high demand for the controlled goods, resulting in shortages; additionally, supply may diminish as producers no longer find it sufficiently profitable to continue producing such goods, further exacerbating the problem." Note: this is an article on HYPERINFLATION!!! en.wikipedia.org