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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2977)	12/18/2007 1:17:02 AM
From: dybdahl	Respond to of 71475

I just sold my last remaining USD stocks.

To: Real Man who wrote (2977)	12/19/2007 11:13:31 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

I can't help but wonder something new is lurking on the horizon and all the topics of discussion in recent years will be minor in the big picture.. Housing crisis will end as will Iraq and the reign of GWB, real economy plus eroding value of your dollar along with much higher rates will dominate as will alternative energy, life sciences, infrastructure rebuild, continued globalization and some wild cards still to be determined

To: Real Man who wrote (2977)	1/21/2008 9:32:28 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

The Dollar Bulls are Stirring Tonight. I think that intuitively they know this is where the USD makes its case, and the Dollar Bulls are proven correct--or--where the USD tacks on a 15.00% drop from current levels on the DXY, as the denouement to the last 4+ years of downtrend. I think the next 120 days will tell the tale. Here is my essay on why no dollar strength is coming, on the back of a deflationary breakout in the United States. And why many are mistaken to think so. (I don't see a deflationary paradigm unfolding either. Some deflationary pressure, yes. But overall deflation, no.) gregor.us Background: The ongoing discussion between deflationists and inflationists over the past 5 years, at times uncivil, would have benefited enormously if participants had only made the distinction between pressures, and paradigms. Deflationary pressure(s) does/do not make for paradigmatic deflation, and visa versa. I am in the inflationist camp, and feel my view is strengthened actually by always acknowledging deflationary pressure from Housing, and cheap Emerging Market Labor. (The former is well upon us of course, but the latter actually is fast dissappearing!). Not only do I believe we are in an inflationary paradigm, but, I believe the United States will successfully repudiate its debt via currency devaluation. The next leg down in the USD will serve to further ease global monetary conditions, and will have implications for already ramping Asian Industrialisation, population growth, and structural shifts in diet/food. A duly chastised American consumer and Housing will continue to pump out deflationary pressure. But, it will be attended to with policy overshoot I think from the FED, ECB, BOE, BOJ. Ben may lack grace under pressure, but there is no doubt where he's headed. Final comment: this correction in global equities is really a winnowing process that will set up the blow off phase of global commodities, in particular gold. Oil derives its strength largely from depletion, so, oil is going to be very nasty on the upside. Water and the Softs still have room to run as does Natural Gas. Gregor