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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (244571)	12/17/2007 5:42:49 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

Petz, Re: 1, That just makes AMD's comments about Q1 being down due to seasonality all the more pathetic Re: 2, "Tax loss selling" has very little to do with AMD being at $7 and change Re: 3 & 4, undocumented? Huh? The doom and gloom is warranted.

To: Petz who wrote (244571)	12/17/2007 5:48:04 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Looks like AMD is looking at an $250M loss, before write offs...i.e. goodwill and intangibles. In a word: UGLY! On the other hand, INTC is looking at a 5 point gross margin improvement and probably an $500M increment in revenues: record revenues and a quarterly eps of $0.38 minimum, before any one time write-offs. Upshot: AMD looks pricey at $8.00 and INTC looks like a HUGE bargain at $25.60!

To: Petz who wrote (244571)	12/17/2007 5:58:49 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

does seem a bit over done does it not ?

To: Petz who wrote (244571)	12/17/2007 8:09:36 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re quibbles. >> 1. Q1 CPU revenue vs. Q4 is on average UP 2% for the years 1999-2006 That's very surprising to me. Completely in the opposite direction of what I expect. I'll have to dig a little. The figure I have seen is that of the total number of PC's sold in a year, 43% are sold in first half, and 57% are sold in second half. And that's where the expectations of seasonality come from. In the case of AMD, at this time, There will be so many charges and writedowns, and changes in products that comparison will be difficult. For now, I'll reiterate my forecast of a large loss in the vicinity of $400m. Do you see a significantly smaller loss ? Maybe even a profit ? ----------- >> 2. Tax loss selling is mostly over, Not at all. year end tax selling by individuals will continue to the last day of the year. ---------- >> 3. virtualization performance penalty of 50% The performance penalty on virtualization is undocumented. Even if the penalty was small, no general purpose server manager will buy a processor with a known defect that occurs in a common application. People who already bought the chip will use the patch, because what choice do they have ? But new sales will be zero. Do you see any barc's in the market ? ---------- >> 4. It also appears consistent with them saying HPC work is not adversely affected. Barcelona servers in HPC market don't use virtualization. << That's exactly precisely, almost to the letter, what I said. Which is that AMD continues to sell barc to HPC customers because they do not use virtualization. Are you posting your response as a quibble, or affirmation ? Looks like agreement to me.

To: Petz who wrote (244571)	12/17/2007 8:43:43 PM
From: wbmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Q1 CPU revenue vs. Q4 is on average UP 2% for the years 1999-2006. Petz, here is some data on that claim. I'd say most of the reason leading to a positive average had to do with AMD's growth period exiting year 2000, and a bit of recovery following their terrible 2002 4th quarter. Most other Q1 periods had small or negative growth. Q1 is typically a down seasonal quarter. Q1 2007 - $918M (-38.2%) Q4 2006 - $1,486M Q1 2006 - $1,299M (-0.6%) Q4 2005 - $1,307M Q1 2005 - $750M (+2.7%) Q4 2004 - $730M Q1 2004 - $571M (-1.7%) Q4 2003 - $581M Q1 2003 - $468M (+11.4%) Q4 2002 - $420M Q1 2002 - $684M (-2.7%) Q4 2001 - $703M Q1 2001 - $661M (+16.8%) Q4 2000 - $566M Q1 2000 - $563M