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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (71702)	12/19/2007 9:40:46 AM
From: Chaz	Respond to of 213184

Slacker and Lizzie I think the ipod sales figure is an important piece of information to figure out for Q1, especially with the stock looking to go lower into OPEX on Friday, as I'm looking to load up on some more below $180. Lizzie, if you're right and Apple sold 18-19 Million ipods in the first 2 months, then using Munster's more conservative monthly percentages would yield an ipod call of 44 million. If you use the traditional 3 year average, it yields just under 49 million units. Unfortunately, I think both numbers are way too high. The other way to look at it is to say that Munster calculated 24-25 million using the conservative monthly percentages. If we use the more traditional ones, his analysis would yeild slightly more than 27 million ipods. This would represent close to a 30% increase YoY on the quarter. That number seems to make more sense to me and it's something the street would applaud. At most, I think the high side for ipod sales will be 30 million or 43% in YoY, but that is really stretching it. The real question then becomes, what will the ASP be on these units? The ASP's have been consistently falling each of the last 8 quarters from a high of $206 in Q1 2006 to a low of $159 in Q4 2007. Now some will argue that because of the new touch, the ASP will jump this quarter. I have to disagree with that as I feel that the shuffle is the perfect "holiday" stocking stuffer and that this is exactly where a lot of the volume came in last year's quarter. So at best the ASP will be between $155-$160(use $157.5) to be conservative. With that in mind, here are the ranges 25 million ipods = $3.94 billion 27 million ipods = $4.25 billion 30 million ipods = $4.73 billion The difference between the 25 million and 30 million ipods sold, amounts to about $0.14 of EPS for the quarter, not insignificant. Charles