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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: InvesTing who wrote (1856)	12/19/2007 8:44:43 PM
From: InvesTing	Respond to of 2121

Your comments prompted me to look up Shilling's recent writings. I've only seen him on the segments on TV and he was adamant.....and RIGHT on each appearance. Also as I alluded in the previous post that it would make sense to short financials --it appears he did suggest that very thing. Indeed when you read the detail, the thought and the clear concise recommendations; any dummy can see it is light years ahead of Brinker's equivocation. The guy takes a stand. It remains to be seen whether the economy and the market suffer the consequences he suggests--but it is obvious a long time ago he was right on the money about housing being a huge problem. He was right on the money about sub prime being only the tip of the iceberg and more importantly he was right on the money suggesting shorting of financials. Can you imagine the money one would have made shorting housing stocks and financials? Like I said the guy may be wrong for the rest of his life. But just reading his writings below; I am clear in my mind that he is one whole lot sharper knife than Brinker. profutures.com forbes.com

To: InvesTing who wrote (1856)	12/20/2007 7:06:49 PM
From: octavian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

InvesTing said: <<I think the Fed and the Treasury dept didn't understand the depth of the problem as well as Shilling apparently did.>> --Right. Virtually no one understood it. That's my point. If you knew Shilling and weren't just looking for ways to criticize Brinker you would not be giving him credit for a good call. The guys always predicts horrible things are going to happen. He's predicted 100 recessions since 1995. -;) Seriously, he ALWAYS assumes the worst-case scenario, which means he's almost always wrong. His opinion means nothing to anyone who knows of him. You know as well as I do that CNBC likes to put these mega-bears on! << It appears that Brinker never had a clue about any of this. If you didn't see this coming--if you don't understand it's magnitude--then obviously you were unable to predict the market movement.>> --Again, I can't blame Brinker because I don't know of any reputable person who did see it coming. A lot of really good mutual funds managers have held homebuilders, citibank and countrywide right through this correction. I have no doubt that Brinker is studying it as best he can, and has determined that it won't get bad enough to cause an actual bear market. Of course, there's ALWAYS the chance that he could be wrong.