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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (351555)	12/20/2007 4:21:37 PM
From: Bid Buster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Fun times ahead

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (351555)	12/20/2007 4:50:29 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 436258

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools." - Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903) GO GATA! It really is surreal to watch the US stock and gold markets trade these days. The more bullish the news for gold, the worse it acts. The more horrendous the news for the stock market, the more it holds up. What is most annoying is that the growing negative news for the US economy and our financial markets has not been factored "into the market." The "news" is always worse than expected … from most all quarters. What are the market managers going to do when there are no messengers left to shoot? Gold was slightly lower and silver higher UNTIL the stock market opened. The DOW came in 60+ higher despite the awful news (see below). Hail to the PPT again. However, as the DOW fell back to the unchanged mark, gold was pummeled. The dollar rose slightly as US interest rates dipped further. Surreal? Unreal? Take your pick. The euro is now back to where it was before the market was hit, yet gold is still down $6 and change. This is really getting tedious re the two key US financial market barometers in the US … the DOW and gold. The first is not allowed to correct and the second is not allowed to advance. Time to hand the ball off and let the blood pressure ease off… Bill, It appears the game for today is that the Cartel wants to try to take gold out the bottom of this very strong continuation pennant formation. TA says that such a formation presages a break out to the upside, but the Cartel is not standing for any of that TA nonsense…they want gold to do what they want it to do. With trillions of dollars/euros of "liquidity" being created to bailout the financially reckless institutions there is only one way gold is going and that is UP; but the Cartel will continue to frustrate the move every step of the way. At this time of year the trading thins out making their naughty hijacking of the markets so much easier …but don’t these guys know that Santa is watching! What if mbia went down you ask? Bill, Having worked with fixed income for most of my 24 year career as a financial advisor, I can tell you that the effects would be dramatic not only for municipal bond holders, but also for the ability for the municipalities themselves to obtain financing for projects ranging from road repair, to building hospitals and schools. There are thousands of muni issuers whose rating is so marginal ( and possibly declining, due to the following paragraph) that the interest rates they would have to pay would not be favorable. Also there are literally dozens of funds, if not hundreds, both exchange traded etf's, closed end funds and traditional municipal bond funds that are holders of only AAA rated insured bonds. Now if you are an insured bond fund and now your bonds are no longer insured, you are required by prospectus to sell them out of the portfolio. The muni market has already taken a severe hit this fall, probably in anticipation of the possibility of this happening. Couple this with the decline in real estate tax revenue from the massive increase of real estate in foreclosure and non performing loans, and you have a double whammy for cities, states, and local municipalities to pay for garbage collection, police, fire and teachers salaries. Here in Arizona, governor Janet Napolitano has stated a fiscal crisis brewing, in that we will be looking at a one billion dollar plus budget shortfall for 2008, and didn't Gov. Schwarzenegger recently issue a similar fate for California a well. Unfortunately I think the problems are only just beginning here.... nationwide......... Look for crime to increase significantly like it always does during recessions, as so many blue collar workers are out of a job due to homebuilding coming to an almost halt. We're in for some tough sledding I think. Wait till the international investors really take notice of this and watch how it affects the dollar. vis a vis gold! thanks for you hard work keeping us informed all the best Jim Wilkerson More on this horror show from Dave in Denver: as of qtr end 9/30, they had a 6.4 billion book value, and they're on the hook for 30 billion of total crap, BUT 8 billion of exposure to "CDO-squareds." Anyone know what that means? CDO-squared = a CDO bundled up in derivatives. I really can't believe MBI agreed to insure something like that, because quite frankly, the securities they are insuring in that instance are more than likely near worthless, if not completely worthless. That means MBI's insurance guarantee is worth 100% on the dollar to the counterparty. That means MBI's net worth is negative 2 billion BEFORE you take into account the other 30 billion of exposure not disclosed on the latest balance sheet. If you assume an average rating of single-A on that and mark those liabilities to market using the ABX index, you can safely assume MBI would be on the hook for roughly 75% of that 30 billion. That's another 21 billion of negative net worth. I smell either a big time Govt bailout coming.... (or it’s all over for MBI). Everyone got PHYSICAL gold? *** Dave mentions big time Gov bailout. What is making the rounds from fellas I respect, as to their acumen, is talk of something far more dramatic … say something like a Marshall Plan. There will be some kind of decree and our world will change overnight. The situation is THAT BAD and GETTING WORSE by the day. To buy time the PPT is preventing a market meltdown and preventing gold from rising to minimize crisis concerns. When this decree is announced, there has to be some sort of quid pro quo … and that is most likely to be a trashing of the dollar and gold taking out $1,000 per ounce … Gold Cartel or no. Which will only compound this developing problem for the dollar… Fatwa Against The Dollar ? By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 12/19/07 "The Telegraph " -- -- To all intents and purposes, the Wahabi religious establishment of Saudi Arabia has just issued a fatwa against the US dollar. This bears watching. A message issued by 26 leading clerics warns that inflation has reached intolerable levels in the Gulf kingdom. While it does not vilify the dollar explicitly, the apparent political aim is to undermine the country's dollar peg. "The rulers should seek to try to remedy this crisis in a way that would ease people's suffering." "We direct this message to the rulers and officials: we remind you of Prophet Mohammad's words that you are shepherds who are responsible for your flock," it said. -www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18923.htm -END- lemetropolecafe.com