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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grandk who wrote (98006)	12/20/2007 8:12:48 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Perhaps. People are trying to catch falling knives in the likes of MDC, TOL, and NVR, which will certainly survive a multi-year downturn. The question is what profitability will look like over the next five years with so much excess building in the last five, and the reversals of the larger home trends. I think there are paired trades, short the weak balance sheets and long the strong balance sheets. Also, if you believe the downturn is nearing bottom, you might be a buyer of them here. I don't believe being long anything in the sector is wise for anything more than a trade. `BC