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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (364316)	12/24/2007 4:33:08 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 1576663

That's a huge range... from under 5% to ~7.5% in 2045.

To: TimF who wrote (364316)	12/26/2007 8:03:56 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576663

Revised October 16, 2007 HOW ROBUST IS THE CURRENT ECONOMIC EXPANSION? By Aviva Aron-Dine, Chad Stone, and Richard Kogan Some proponents of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts have argued that the economic and employment growth of the past few years establishes that these tax cuts are “working” and have had strong beneficial effects. More recently, some have also argued that, with growth apparently slowing, new tax cuts are needed and would reinvigorate the economy. The evidence on the current expansion to date provides little or no support for the claim that the tax cuts have worked, which casts doubt on the claim that more tax cuts would reinvigorate a possibly flagging economy. Examination of a broad range of key economic indicators indicates that this economic expansion has not been especially robust. To the contrary, relative to expansionary periods in the past, the current recovery has, on balance, been weaker than average. In fact, with respect to GDP, consumption, investment, wage and salary, and employment growth, the current period is either the weakest or among the weakest since World War II. Moreover, the economy’s performance over the past five and a half years has overall been weaker than its performance in the early 1990s, in years following significant tax increases. GDP and wage and salary growth have been somewhat weaker than in the 1990s, and job creation and investment growth have been substantially weaker. What the Data Show: The Key Findings We examine Commerce Department, Labor Department, and Federal Reserve Board data on seven economic indicators: the Gross Domestic Product, personal consumption expenditures, private domestic fixed non-residential investment, net worth, income from wages and salaries, payroll employment, and corporate profits. For each indicator, we look at average growth both since the economy hit bottom in November 2001 (i.e., since the recession ended and the current recovery began) and since the last business-cycle peak in March 2001. We compare average growth over these periods with the average growth that occurred over comparable periods in the other business cycles since the end of World War II.[1] (Growth is measured after adjusting for inflation, except for employment levels, where such an adjustment is inapplicable.) For six of the seven indicators, the growth rate over the current period is below the average growth rate for the comparable periods of other post-World War II economic recoveries. Notably, during the current recovery, the economy has been among the weakest since World War II with respect to both overall economic growth and growth in fixed non-residential investment. These two indicators should have captured any positive “growth effects” of the tax cuts. The labor market also has been weaker during the current recovery. Both employment growth and wage and salary growth have been weaker during the current recovery as a whole than in any prior recovery period since the end of World War II. The current period has outperformed the average post World War II recovery period in only one area: corporate profits, which have grown much more rapidly than average. continued....... cbpp.org