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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NicoV who wrote (2898)	12/28/2007 5:11:21 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

@Nico - DRAM I have already said this weeks ago - the worse DRAM goes, the better for us. Actually there are many unknowns when it comes to CAPEX plans for 2008. Many have cut their spending plans but its my feeling, that more cuts will follow once the Q4 numbers are finally out. It seems that Samsung hasn't said much and I have seen analyst predictions of only 10% less for whole 2008 compared to 2007. Capex is always a moving target, but if Q1 pricing will not change to the better and FAST, we will learn much more after Q1. We can't connect DRAM/NAND directly with NOR, but if these business segment move to much much worse P&L numbers for the big guys, the appeal for NOR activities and more pricing battles will shrink SIGNIFICANTLY! One target is QI - we could read the news from yesterday with Macronix. I don't expect much here and I expect much less, if I look at QIs performance. Q4 will be a desaster and Q1 looks more the same way. I can't imagine they will do new things in that ugly environment. Micron looks very similar. Their NAND progress is very good and they ramp as fast as they can, but the losses grew and grew. And they had the benefit, that their quarter ended already in november. Again, if prices don't rise fast and now, the next quarter for MU (dec-feb) will look VERY terrible. It has to be seen how the other 3 big guys (Hynix, Samsung, Toshiba) performed in Q4 - we will know this in a few days - but I don't expect nice numbers here. Toshiba and Hynix are no NOR comp., but I hope that Samsung will perform bad (DRAM/NAND) too (too bad they have other big business segments) -> so they will cut CAPEX for 2008 significantly. Yesterday we have talked a bit about Newco. Someone pointed out, that Intel and/or STM could let their parts "die". I don't think this will happen, but imagine your closing these segments and your able to sell old FABs and/or Equipment, which AMD did with their 200mm lines. This would be the best you could do. That would be an amazing move for SPSN, too bad I see the probab. at 0,01%. BUGGI