China 3G: Coming Soon
Chappie,
<< Tero hasn't done his China homework... he completely missed Mobile's prospective TD-SCDMA/EDGE network, which would be a viable contender if the government decides to rig 3G for the Olympics >>
In reality, Tero has probably simply not made the mistake of confusing China Mobile's ongoing expansion of its GSM/GPRS/EDGE networks with the implementaion of their TD-SCDMA test networks in eight mainland cities, although IF and when commercially implemented by China Mobile they'll no doubt use 'commercially acceptable' multi-mode handsets.
Lehman Brothers Americas team commented on the TD-SCDMA test network implementation on November 15 after meeting with Mobile's Executive Director and VP Madam Xin Fan-Fei on the 2nd day of their Asia Tour ...
TD Testing Network Update: Construction in the 8 test cities will be completed by the end of 07 with testing starting in 08. Mdm. Xin indicated that construction of the TD-SCDMA test networks has not been completed in all eight test cities — especially in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The major issue has been site acquisition problems in the large urban centers. This is consistent with comments we heard from other sources within the TD-SCDMA eco-system that the network build out will be delayed from this past October. The handset procurement for TD also has not been done yet and will take some time. In 2008, CM will test features of the network, handset applications, value-added services, and the overall capabilities of the new technology. Mdm. Xin believes that this could take most of 2008 to complete with a report to be submitted by the end of the year. We believe that industry restructuring or 3G licensing are likely to occur until all of this testing for TD is completed. If 3G licensing does not happen until 2009 in China, Mdm. Xin believes that China Mobile needs to consider the best options for next generation network build outs. More specifically, it is possible that China Mobile could move directly to 4G and use aspects of 3G and 4G for the upgrade. With 4G wireless networks, it is possible to have download speeds of 300Mbps vs. 2 to 3Mbps with the 3G technology available today with HSDPA. In fact, Mdm. Xin said that there is a working group within the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) that is considering the option of China moving directly to 4G without even deploying 3G — which might be a bit outdated by the time licensing is done. No matter what technology is deployed for next generation wireless service, China Mobile intends to use its 2G network for voice services — especially in rural areas — for many years to come. High speed wireless data service would only be rolled out in areas where it would be profitable for the company. In fact, Mdm. Xin emphasized that much of the capital expenditures that CM is using these days is for transmission, power supply, core switching, tower infrastructure, etc. can be used for both 2G and next generation wireless services.
Most likely the TD-SCDMA test networks that are being rolled out in 10 Chinese cities including the 6 host cities of Beijing Olympics by China Mobile and other Chinese operators will be at least demonstrated to interested audiences (however small that audience may be) during the Olympics in May but whether or not viable pre-commercial handsets that allow automatic handover to commercial GSM networks will be available will be another story, and the issue of imminent 3G licensing will probably still be up in the air come the Olympics just as it was in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 as Tero noted ...
A news report about up to four 3G licenses being awarded to Chinese operators in the coming year electrified the telecom sector, triggering speculative trading in China Mobile (CHL ) and China Unicom (CHU) shares. This happened in January 2003. And in 2004. And in 2005, and in 2006, and this week. There have been a barrelful of red herrings here -- three seasons of Lost have nothing on Chinese government officials entangled in a web of conflicting impulses and interests.
In the interim we have the same old conflicting reports and claims of misinterpretation we've had for years ...
>> China Telecoms Shares Rise on 3G Talk
Mure Dickie (Beijing)
Justine Lau (Hong Kong)
The Financial Times
December 28 2007
ft.com
The shares of Chinese telecoms companies listed in Hong Kong surged yesterday on what the industry's regulator and a government researcher called speculative reports about the long-awaited introduction of 3G mobile services.
While Beijing blamed journalists for misreading its tele-coms policy signals, the share moves were a sharp reminder of the notorious lack of transparency surrounding regulators' plans for the world's biggest telecoms market by number of subscribers.
Shares in Chinese operators and equipment companies climbed by up to 7 per cent after a government statement about wireless technology was interpreted as a step towards the start of 3G services.
Officials have for years been engaged in heated but secret debate about when and how to issue 3G licences to China's state-controlled but internationally listed operators, leaving observers desperate to know their intentions.
So the State Council, China's cabinet, attracted attention when it issued an ambiguous statement on Wednesday night saying that it ha-d judged a "new broadband wireless mobile communications network" to be "basically mature and ready for implementation".
But while some media interpreted the statement as referring to 3G, the Ministry for Information Industry, the regulator, yesterday said it was actually about development of post-3G wireless data technologies.
"For some institutions to seize the chance to cook up the 3G concept is a fundamental misinterpretation," the Sina news website quoted a ministry official as saying.
Speculation surrounding the State Council announcement followed local reports that a research body under the powerful National Development and Reform Commission had offered "strong support" for the break-up of number two mobile operator China Unicom, with its network to be split between the two leading fixed-line operators.
But a senior researcher with the NDRC's Institute of the Economic System and Management condemned suggestions that the report reflected government intentions or policy.
In the absence of greater policy clarity, however, Chinese telecoms stocks are likely to continue to be vulnerable to speculation.
China Telecom, which is the country's biggest fixed-line operator and seen as likely to benefit most from getting a mobile licence, jumped 6.26 per cent to close at HK$6.28 yesterday. Smaller fixed-line rival China Netcom rose 3.44 per cent to HK$24.05.
The prospect of stronger competition for dominant wireless operator China Mobile sent its shares down 2.26 per cent to HK$138.6, but Unicom climbed 3.57 per cent to HK$17.98. ZTE, China's second largest telecoms provider, was up 7.02 per cent. ###
>> Stocks Climb on "Misinterpreted" 3G Report
China Daily
Beijing
December 28, 2007
news.xinhuanet.com
Shares in local telecom firms jumped yesterday on a report the State Council had approved a plan to launch 3G services, which analysts and officials said could be a misinterpretation.
China Unicom, the nation's second largest mobile carrier, closed at 12.29 yuan in Shanghai yesterday, up 8.82 percent. ZTE Corp, the nation's second biggest phone-equipment maker, gained 4.39 yuan, or 7.4 percent, to 63.69 yuan.
The rise is seen as a response to an earlier Xinhua News Agency report that the State Council had approved the proposal to start "preparation for the next-generation broadband wireless mobile communications technology". The article triggered speculation that China would begin its launch of the long-awaited 3G mobile services.
"It's a misinterpretation," said Wang Lijian, division chief of the Ministry of Information Industry's news department. "The technology mentioned by the State Council has no direct link with 3G services and won't affect the progress of its commercial deployment." Wang didn't give a timetable for the launch of 3G services.
According to Wang, "broadband wireless mobile communications technology" was first raised in 2006 as a research project for the nation's long-term science and technology development. The technology is expected to have a transmission capacity of 50 to 100 times the current 3G technologies.
The high-speed 3G technology allows users to hold videoconferences and offers faster Internet downloads.
The government is trying to boost the development of its homegrown 3G standard TD-SCDMA, which is being tested in 10 cities. Rival standards WCDMA and CDMA2000 are already in use in other countries.
China Mobile Communications, which owns 74 percent of Hong Kong-listed China Mobile Ltd, is now building its TD-SCDMA network in eight cities, including Beijing and Guangzhou. The parent companies of fixed-line operators China Telecom Corp and China Netcom Group Corp are also building TD-SCDMA networks.
The TD-SCDMA network in the 10 cities will serve 50 million customers, Wang Jing, TD-SCDMA Forum secretary-general, said earlier. The 3G mobile-phone network might be introduced for commercial tests by users at the end of the first quarter of 2008, Wang was quoted as saying. ###
Best,
- Eric - |
