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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (6857)	12/29/2007 7:58:24 PM
From: the navigator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24213

From looking at your most recent posts from TOD, it looks like we may have peaked. Coverage in the MSM is underwhelming. Specifically, I'm thinking of this information: Executive Summary: 1. Monthly production peaks are unchanged: 1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd (revised down 0.07 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (9 months) is 84.32 mbpd (up 0.04 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006 for the same period. 2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (unchanged), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 80.99 mbpd (down 0.21 mbpd), down 0.35 mbpd from 2006. 3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (unchanged), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 73.09 mbpd (down 0.14 mbpd), down 0.48 mbpd from 2006. 4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.01 mbpd (down 0.02 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 7.90 mbpd (down 0.07 mbpd), up 0.13 mbpd from 2006. 2. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues, however, there is a large increase in crude oil production in September by almost 1 mbpd (largest monthly increase since July 2006). Two thirds of this increase are coming from OPEC. September 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.50 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago. 3. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above) is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year. Notations: * mbpd= Million of barrels per day * Gb= Billion of barrels (109) * Tb= Trillion of barrels (1012) * NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids * CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate * NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL) * URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource If we have peaked, how long until we start seeing/feeling its effects in our daily lives? Ok, I know gas prices already reflect it, but I mean inescapable effects that wake up the American people to the fact that we are at the edge of the cliff?