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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (72985)	12/29/2007 12:48:22 PM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 116555

study was done in oct.. can you imagine how energy will be number again by the end of april.. esp if you survey the northeast, midatlantic and midwest. home heating oil is running over $3.00 now. perhaps 33% over last year and this is before a major cold snap and lower inventories. i see house heating the big problem for lower income and retirees this winter. in my case i fill my gas tank for the car at most every two months. i am the exception but those on mas transit, those who can car pool, and those who are retired can adjust their driving habits. Later we can always go to allocations vs higher prices. something i favor for gasoline.

To: mishedlo who wrote (72985)	12/30/2007 1:01:07 AM
From: marcher	Respond to of 116555

mish, thanks for the blog "Consumer Survey..." I was not able to pullup the pdf for the report but I'd like to respond to your questions about the survey's technical adequacy. I completely agree with your suggestion that many surveys are used to influence opinion and not gather objective data. Regarding the survey, I would like to know how many respondents are paying a mortgage and how many are renters or homeowners not paying a mortgage. This information is needed to interpret the finding that "only 19 percent of households" cite mortgage payments as a reason for increased hardship. For example, if only 19 percent of respondents are paying a mortgage, the statement indicates 100% of those with a mortgage are stressed. The survey is biased to those who have a computer. This likely selects-out those (subprime?) borrowers who are not part of the online culture. The method of inviting and selecting responders by "email with a link to a website," selects-out those who do not open unknown email. (Not sure what effect this might have.) "Responses were received from a nationally representative sample of 1,006 online households." I wonder what they consider to be a nationally representative sample. How was the sample stratified? The sample size could be fine. The bonus points, most likely, did not skew the results. Paying respondents is not that unusual. That's my quick response, fwiw.