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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (27165)	1/1/2008 5:51:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217798

Hello Seeker, I wish you and family a good 2008. I am mindful of the parallels between what is happening now with what took place in 1929, and I see few differences, at least not enough to matter. Of the differences, I see what is happening now will lead us to greater disaster, globally, everywhere, more deeply cleansing. Back then, I understand there were blind pools, investment trusts, trust of trusts, publicly listed versions of all three, all simply mechanisms to step up leverage in broad daylight. Now, we have special acquisition companies, hedge funds, fund of funds, and publicly listed versions of all three, all simply mechanisms ... Speaking of which, some funds, funded entirely by debt, in turn invested in blind pools, are already blowing up, with the difference being that it be the officialdom and unqualified ones at that, running the money, at all levels nytimes.com "Fund Frozen, Florida Towns Feel the Pinch" This time it is different. It is worse. Shanghai misplaces social security money. Florida messes up school budgets. China has problems with the 3G dam. America grounds all F15s and depends on Canada for air defense. Let us watch and brief. Chugs, TJ

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (27165)	1/3/2008 9:16:09 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217798

Brazilian Banks May See Profit Growth Slowed by Taxes Profit growth may slow at Brazil's biggest financial companies after the government announced plans to increase taxes on loans and bank earnings. Brazil will boost a tax on lending by 0.38 percentage point and raise the tax on profits to 15 percent from 9 percent, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday in Brasilia. ``A relatively small increase can affect the demand for credit,'' especially since Brazil's interest rates remain high, said Gustavo Barbeito, who helps manage the equivalent of $153 million at Banco Prosper SA in Rio de Janeiro. Concern that higher taxes will sap earnings growth sent the MSCI Brazil/Financials Index down 4.4 percent yesterday, led by Banco Bradesco SA, the country's second-biggest non-state bank. While Brazil's central bank reduced benchmark interest rates by almost half in the past two years to a record low of 11.25 percent, rates remain the second highest among emerging markets when adjusted for inflation, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ``We expect profits to be somewhat lower, especially with the increase in the tax'' on earnings, said Aloisio Lemos, banking analyst at Agora Corretora, Brazil's biggest brokerage. ``We're reducing exposure to banks, in line with this tendency of the market to penalize them.'' Stock Slide Bradesco fell the most in more than 10 months yesterday, dropping 5.2 percent. Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA, the country's largest non-state bank, declined 4.3 percent to 43.52 reais. Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros SA, the fourth-biggest non- state bank, dropped 4.8 percent to 23.10 reais. State-controlled Banco do Brasil SA, Latin America's largest bank by assets, slipped 2 percent to 29.80 reais. The earnings of Brazilian banks probably will increase 20 percent this year and 18 percent in 2009, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG estimated last month. The higher taxes will be accompanied by spending cuts as the government tries to compensate for a loss of 40 billion reais ($11.4 billion) in revenue. Lawmakers refused to renew the so- called CPMF tax on financial transactions last month that accounted for about 10 percent of government revenue. The slowdown in bank profit would be mitigated if Brazil's credit rating is increased to investment grade, said Joel Bogdanski, a senior economist at Banco Itau SA. Investment Grade ``It is a relatively mature decision of the government after it lost the revenue from the CPMF,'' Bogdanski said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. Ratings companies ``will wait to see how the changes will be implemented, but I don't believe it will prevent Brazil from becoming an investment-grade country.'' The higher taxes will add 10 billion reais in revenue, Mantega said. Another 10 billion reais will come from economic growth that will boost tax collection, he said. The government will also cut spending by 20 billion reais. The measures ``can make credit a bit more expensive in Brazil, but we expstatcredit to continue to grow,'' Mantega said. Lending in Brazil has increased every month for almost four years, helping to boost banks' profits. Loans climbed 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the central bank reported last month. To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: January 3, 2008 04:03 EST

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (27165)	1/3/2008 9:16:10 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217798

Brazilian Banks May See Profit Growth Slowed by Taxes Profit growth may slow at Brazil's biggest financial companies after the government announced plans to increase taxes on loans and bank earnings. Brazil will boost a tax on lending by 0.38 percentage point and raise the tax on profits to 15 percent from 9 percent, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday in Brasilia. ``A relatively small increase can affect the demand for credit,'' especially since Brazil's interest rates remain high, said Gustavo Barbeito, who helps manage the equivalent of $153 million at Banco Prosper SA in Rio de Janeiro. Concern that higher taxes will sap earnings growth sent the MSCI Brazil/Financials Index down 4.4 percent yesterday, led by Banco Bradesco SA, the country's second-biggest non-state bank. While Brazil's central bank reduced benchmark interest rates by almost half in the past two years to a record low of 11.25 percent, rates remain the second highest among emerging markets when adjusted for inflation, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ``We expect profits to be somewhat lower, especially with the increase in the tax'' on earnings, said Aloisio Lemos, banking analyst at Agora Corretora, Brazil's biggest brokerage. ``We're reducing exposure to banks, in line with this tendency of the market to penalize them.'' Stock Slide Bradesco fell the most in more than 10 months yesterday, dropping 5.2 percent. Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA, the country's largest non-state bank, declined 4.3 percent to 43.52 reais. Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros SA, the fourth-biggest non- state bank, dropped 4.8 percent to 23.10 reais. State-controlled Banco do Brasil SA, Latin America's largest bank by assets, slipped 2 percent to 29.80 reais. The earnings of Brazilian banks probably will increase 20 percent this year and 18 percent in 2009, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG estimated last month. The higher taxes will be accompanied by spending cuts as the government tries to compensate for a loss of 40 billion reais ($11.4 billion) in revenue. Lawmakers refused to renew the so- called CPMF tax on financial transactions last month that accounted for about 10 percent of government revenue. The slowdown in bank profit would be mitigated if Brazil's credit rating is increased to investment grade, said Joel Bogdanski, a senior economist at Banco Itau SA. Investment Grade ``It is a relatively mature decision of the government after it lost the revenue from the CPMF,'' Bogdanski said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. Ratings companies ``will wait to see how the changes will be implemented, but I don't believe it will prevent Brazil from becoming an investment-grade country.'' The higher taxes will add 10 billion reais in revenue, Mantega said. Another 10 billion reais will come from economic growth that will boost tax collection, he said. The government will also cut spending by 20 billion reais. The measures ``can make credit a bit more expensive in Brazil, but we expstatcredit to continue to grow,'' Mantega said. Lending in Brazil has increased every month for almost four years, helping to boost banks' profits. Loans climbed 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the central bank reported last month. To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: January 3, 2008 04:03 EST