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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (4712)1/1/2008 2:42:03 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 149317
 
Presidential Rivals Sharpen 'Change' Pitches in Iowa (Update1)

By Julianna Goldman

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- After a yearlong campaign in Iowa, the Republican and Democratic presidential front-runners are boiling down their arguments to a six-letter word: change.

It's a tough sell. Both races are essentially at a draw before the Jan. 3 statewide caucuses.

``Nobody has been able to pull comfortably ahead, and they've been trying for 10 months to find a way to convince a sizable portion of the Republican or Democratic electorate that they are the right person,'' said Arthur Sanders, chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Drake University in Des Moines.

Seventy-three percent of Iowa voters say the country is on the wrong track, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll in late December. With the caucuses likely to set the stage for the rest of the campaign, candidates are going to great lengths, outlining how they would transform the status quo and put the country on the right track.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton says she'll use her experience as former first lady and a New York senator; John Edwards says he'll wage the toughest fight against special interests and corporations; and Barack Obama offers the ideals of hope and vision put to work on behalf of the American people, who he says are the real agents of change.

Experience and Style

For the Republican front-runners in Iowa, Mitt Romney invokes his experience as a former Massachusetts governor and chief executive and the memory of former President Ronald Reagan, while Mike Huckabee says his version of President George W. Bush's compassionate-conservative approach will help unite Americans to change the country.

Huckabee leads Romney among Republican caucus goers 32 percent to 26 percent in a Des Moines Register poll released yesterday. Senator John McCain of Arizona follows with 13 percent. Among Democrats, Obama has 32 percent support to Clinton's 25 percent. Edwards is backed by 24 percent. The poll, taken Dec. 27-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Clinton, 60, hammers on her theme across Iowa. It combines her experience to make changes with an indirect critique of her main rivals.

``Some people think you bring about change by demanding it; some people think you do it by hoping for it; I think you bring change by working really, really hard for it every single day,'' she said Dec. 30 in Traer.

`Fierce Urgency'

On the stump, Obama says the caucuses are a defining moment and borrows language from the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr., who spoke of the ``fierce urgency of now.'' He urges his Iowa audiences to be part of a movement that will revolutionize American politics.

``We talked about change when were down, and we talked about change when we were up, and this change thing must be catching on because I notice know suddenly everybody's talking about change,'' Obama, 46, told a crowd in Des Moines on Dec. 30.

Edwards, 54, a former North Carolina senator, calls the election the ``great moral test of our generation.'' The former trial lawyer, ratcheting up his populist tone, makes his final pitch to rural and blue-collar workers by blaming ``corporate greed'' for economic and power imbalances in the country.

``Unless you've got a president who's willing to take on these drug companies, insurance companies on health care, willing to take on oil companies, power companies on the environment, nothing's going to change,'' Edwards said in Waverly, Iowa, Dec. 27.

`Changing Things'

The Republican race in Iowa pits two former governors against each other, with contrasts in style and substance.

Romney, 60, the co-founder of private equity firm Bain Capital LLC and a one-term governor, says he has lifelong experience at ``changing things.''

``We need somebody who understands how to build and strengthen the American spirit, the American family, at the same time use change to grow our economy and make us the most robust economy in the world,'' he told a crowd at Newton's Midtown Café Dec. 29.

Huckabee, meanwhile, says he'll refocus on the compassionate conservatism that Bush campaigned on in 2000 yet never realized in office and pressing domestic issues. He told an audience in Indianola, Iowa, that the country's survival depends on the next president addressing the budget deficit, immigration, the tax system, health-care coverage and education.

Huckabee's Stand

``If we don't make some changes to the way we do business in this country,'' the former Arkansas governor, 52, said, ``it really won't matter in another generation whether we call ourselves Democrat or Republican because there won't be enough of an America left to still be fighting for.''

Over the past week, the two also have sharpened their attacks on each other, with Huckabee calling Romney ``dishonest'' for changing his stances on issues such as abortion rights, and Romney's campaign aides pointing to what they called Huckabee's ``troubling record'' as governor on taxes and immigration.

``It's a record that is tough to defend, so his testiness and irritability when being questioned about it is obvious,'' Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said Dec. 30.

Yesterday, Huckabee called a Des Moines news conference to announce he would forgo negative campaigning. He then showed reporters an ad attacking Romney's record and said he decided that morning not to broadcast it in Iowa.

``Conventional political wisdom is that when you are hit and it's beginning to do damage, the smart play is to hit back,'' Huckabee said. ``We will run only the ads that talk about why I should be president, and not why Mitt Romney should not.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Julianna Goldman in Des Moines at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 1, 2008 11:52 EST



To: Dale Baker who wrote (4712)1/1/2008 8:15:15 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 149317
 
Obama seizes the lead from Clinton on eve of first poll

news.independent.co.uk

By Leonard Doyle in Des Moines

Published: 02 January 2008

Barack Obama has surged into the lead on the eve of the first electoral test in the 2008 presidential elections, thanks to the enthusiastic support of young, independent and first-time voters.

Promising change from the past 15 years of Bush-Clinton bickering, the candidate's brand of inclusive politics is lighting a fire under the political process in Iowa and nationwide.

At the end of a year-long campaign he has come from behind to be the first choice of 32 per cent of Democrats who intend to take part in the "meeting of neighbours" or caucuses across the state tomorrow night. Mr Obama's lead in Iowa – a state that is 94.9 per cent white – also cements his role as the first black presidential candidate to be taken seriously in America's history.

Hillary Clinton, his chief rival, is holding steady at 25 per cent and the populist John Edwards, backed by the trade unions, is virtually unchanged at 24 per cent.

There was also good news for the Republican insurgent Mike Huckabee, in the latest poll by The Des Moines Register newspaper. Mr Huckabee, a Christian fundamentalist, fended off a last-minute challenge from Mitt Romney, the Mormon former governor of Massachusetts. However, it will be difficult for him to sustain a lead in the larger primary states.

Despite the latest poll, the result in Iowa remains highly unpredictable, as there are still a high number of undecided voters. With 6 per cent of likely Democratic caucus-goers and 4 per cent of the Republicans saying they do not have a first preference, the result could swing either way

Mr Obama has seen his lead grow in the Register's poll despite fierce challenges from the Clinton campaign, including such negative tactics as reminding voters of his use of cocaine as a young man.

In Perry, Mr Obama stuck to his core message, attackign the fractious politics of "tearing your opponents down instead of lifting the country up". For months he has been telling voters that America does not need to be divided and angry. "You can't afford to settle for the same old politics," he told an enthusiastic crowd.

The poll found that Iowa Democrats say they prefer change and unity to other leadership characteristics such as experience, which the Clinton campaign has been keen to stress. John Rethwisch, a 56-year-old Democrat, said he wanted a candidate who represents a sharp departure from the status quo. "I have been seeing more and more something Kennedy-esque coming from Obama," he said.

The three top Democrats have been attracting large crowds, with Mrs Clinton having the added attraction of the political celebrity Bill Clinton by her side. Mr Edwards remains a challenge to both, with an angry, populist anti-special interest campaign that resonates among middle-class Iowans.

But voters have flocked to hear Mr Obama's address with its message that "Americans all across the country are hungry for – desperate for – a new type of politics. A politics focused not on what divides us but on our common values and our common ideals".

He was scathing in his Perry speech: "Now we hear some other candidates speak almost scornfully about this idea of hope. They imply that hope means you're naive or passive or you can't fight."

As the political commentator Walter Shapiro put it: "Obama is following his own compass – setting out on a path different from those of former Democratic presidential contenders."



To: Dale Baker who wrote (4712)1/2/2008 4:55:34 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 149317
 
The economic philosophies of Hillary and Obama
______________________________________________________________

Obama and his advisors have been more influenced by behavioral economics, Hillary relies more on targeted incentives. This article makes for a very interesting read...

Democrats: More Than Health Care
By DAVID LEONHARDT
THE NEW YORK TIMES
January 2, 2008

Perhaps you have heard that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have come up with different health care plans. Hers would require every American to own health insurance. His would not.

That difference is the only one between the two candidates on any domestic policy that has received much attention. (Think about it: can you name another?) Outside of health care, the campaigns — and we in the media — have focused on more exalted concepts, like experience, change and judgment.

But there really are some other important differences between the candidates. When you look at their policies as a whole, you see that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama have actually laid out two competing economic philosophies. The fight over health insurance is just one part of their disagreement.

Compared with all the other candidates — Democrat and Republican — Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama occupy roughly the same place on the ideological spectrum. They’re both somewhat to the right of John Edwards, who favors a more muscular brand of government intervention to help the middle class. And they are well to the left of every Republican.

But the differences between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama can’t be neatly captured with the standard language of right and left.

The easiest way to describe Senator Clinton’s philosophy is to say that she believes in the promise of narrowly tailored government policies, like focused tax cuts. She has more faith that government can do what it sets out to do, which is a traditionally liberal view. Yet she also subscribes to the conservative idea that people respond rationally to financial incentives.

Senator Obama’s ideas, on the other hand, draw heavily on behavioral economics, a left-leaning academic movement that has challenged traditional neoclassical economics over the last few decades. Behavioral economists consider an abiding faith in rationality to be wishful thinking. To Mr. Obama, a simpler program — one less likely to confuse people — is often a smarter program.

Given the odds that the next five weeks will turn one of the two candidates into a presumptive presidential nominee, it’s worth thinking about these ideas while there is still a campaign going on. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama both may be middle-of-the-road Democrats, but they do have different visions of how government should work.

If you can remember Bill Clinton’s State of the Union addresses, you’ll get a pretty good idea of where Hillary Clinton is coming from. Those speeches were filled with programs to encourage specific kinds of behavior, like tax breaks for college tuition, health care and retirement savings.

So has Mrs. Clinton’s campaign. She has proposed new tax credits for savings, tuition, health care, elder care and renewable energy use. Her retirement tax credit, for example, would match the first $1,000 saved by couples making less than $60,000. For those making from $60,000 to $100,000, the match would be 50 cents on the dollar. To Mrs. Clinton, these policies are more efficient than old-style bureaucracy and less expensive than across-the-board tax cuts.

“Her view is that it makes more sense to have government focus on specific needs and concerns,” Neera Tanden, the campaign’s policy director, says. “And her experience in the government informs that view.”

Mr. Obama — the onetime community organizer — tends to look at economic policy more like a foreign-policy realist looks at the world. He will sometimes remind aides that policies that look good on paper don’t necessarily work in the real world. “That’s his thing,” says Austan Goolsbee, Mr. Obama’s top economic adviser.

The problem with Mrs. Clinton savings plan, according to the Obama view, is that many people won’t save even when they are offered subsidies to do so. After all, many workers who are eligible for 401(k) matching funds don’t take advantage of them now.

So Mr. Obama would instead require companies to deduct money automatically from their employees’ paychecks and place it in a savings account the employee owned. Employees could opt out of the program. But if they did nothing, they would end up saving money. It’s an idea that comes directly from academic research showing that savings rates have jumped when individual companies have adopted such plans.

Mr. Obama isn’t opposed to narrow tax credits, but his agenda isn’t organized around them. Instead, he has proposed an across-the-board $1,000 tax cut for every family in the bottom 90 percent or so of the income distribution. As he notes, the middle-class squeeze is caused by slow-growing wages and the rising cost of energy, education and health care, he says. It’s not a narrow problem.

His skepticism about government tinkering also helps explains his stance on a health care mandate. (Except for the mandate, the Democratic health plans are essentially the same.) Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards favor a mandate, because — as they point out — there will never be universal health care without one.

Mr. Obama counters that Mrs. Clinton’s mandate won’t do the trick, either. She has not proposed especially tough penalties for people who ignore it.

“I don’t think that the problem with the American people is that they are not being forced to get health care,” Mr. Obama has said. “The problem is they can’t afford it.”

So which of the approaches has a better chance of success?

There’s no question that tailored policies can work. They often did during the Clinton administration. President Clinton’s expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit, which provides a cash rebate to working families with low incomes, has been arguably the most effective antipoverty policy of the last 30 years.

Even when such policies aren’t perfect, they can make a difference. Mr. Obama is right that some people would ignore a health care mandate. But some wouldn’t. As any good behavioral economist knows, there really are people who can afford health insurance and who would like to have it — but who haven’t gotten around to getting it. A mandate would nudge some of them to do so, and the whole health care system would be better off as a result.

Yet for all of the good ideas Mrs. Clinton has proposed, there still seems to be something missing from her agenda. It feels like less than the sum of its parts. It lacks some of the elegance of the Obama approach.

Most people have only limited time and ability to sort through the details of government programs and then sign up for each one that might help them. And today’s middle-class anxiety stems from some tremendously broad issues, like globalization and technological change. No matter how well it’s designed, a package of tax credits doesn’t seem quite up to the task of making the economy work for the middle class.

In a coming column, I’ll look at the economic philosophies of the Republican candidates.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (4712)1/2/2008 8:39:28 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
White House Run Takes Different Skills Than Running the Nation

By Indira Lakshmanan and Edwin Chen

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- For a year, would-be U.S. presidents have pressed the flesh at state fairs, fielded questions in debates about what Jesus would do and whether they are sufficiently ``black'' or ``feminine,'' attacked their rivals in sound bites and defended themselves in costly ads.

Over the next six days, the heavily wooed voters of Iowa and New Hampshire will reward some, and not others. Yet the qualities that win the charm offensive and mud- slinging of a campaign often have little to do with the skills required to govern, say former presidential advisers and historians.

``The ability to do sound bites, to be able to attack your opponent, to appeal to your party base'' is crucial in a campaign, said Leon Panetta, who served as White House chief of staff under President Bill Clinton.

Once in the Oval Office, a president must ``unify the country behind your vision and be able to work within the institutions of our democracy to get things done,'' Panetta said.

The campaign rewards the ``ability to raise money, name identification, and skill and discipline in transmitting a message that will attract large numbers of voters,'' said historian Michael Beschloss, author of nine books on the presidency.

`Performance Under Pressure'

What a campaign rarely does is reveal ``their judgment and tenacity, their understanding of other political actors, their core values and their performance under pressure,'' he said.

In 1860, Republican delegates knew Abraham Lincoln had the leadership skills to face the danger of the South leaving the Union, Beschloss said. ``I'm not sure those qualities would have been recognized under the process we have today,'' he said.

A candidate today needs to win voters' hearts, and personal style often trumps substance. A president, by contrast, needs viable policies more than one-liners and a good haircut. As former New York Governor Mario Cuomo put it: ``You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.''

In this race, candidates are courting the hard core in their parties with big talk on social issues, taxes, immigration and foreign affairs. With a few exceptions, such rhetoric reflects more the passions of the moment than a blueprint for practical governance.

`No Chance'

Outsider candidates often make promises ``that have no chance of being enacted,'' such as Republican former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's proposal to eliminate income tax, said Lawrence Jacobs, a presidential scholar at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. ``The public have their hopes elevated into the stratosphere,'' Jacobs said.

And campaign slogans often have little to do with governance. Delaware Senator Joseph Biden recently alluded to the disconnect between what is said on the trail and what is done in the White House by referring to the competing campaign pitches of the two front-runners for the Democratic nomination, Senators Hillary Clinton of New York, 60, and Barack Obama of Illinois, 46.

``When this campaign is over, political slogans like `experience' and `change' will mean absolutely nothing,'' Biden, 65, who is also a Democratic candidate, said in an ad. ``The next president has to act.''

To be sure, certain aspects of the popularity contest can be preparation for the workaday demands of the White House. The endurance test of traversing the country and beating back attacks weeds out most who can't handle the crushing burden of presidential crises.

Kennedy

Likewise, meeting voters is about more than getting votes. Campaigning in West Virginia, John F. Kennedy went down a mine shaft and ``was absolutely flabbergasted by the plight of the miners. His first executive order addressed miners' health and safety, something he would've never known about if he didn't have to campaign,'' said Lou Cannon, a presidential biographer.

Above all, the charisma and communication skills that win votes also helped presidents such as ``Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton get things done that you can't if you're Jimmy Carter,'' said Cannon, co-author of the forthcoming book ``Reagan's Disciple: George W. Bush's Troubled Quest for a Presidential Legacy.''

At the same time, campaigns offer voters glimpses, if furtive ones, into the personality underneath a candidate's façade. When George H.W. Bush glanced at his watch and Al Gore sighed during debates, the men came across as impatient and arrogant.

Coalition-Building

The transition from successful candidate to successful president is never an easy one. Campaigns are about sharpening differences with rivals, while governing is about building coalitions.

High on victory, newly elected presidents are often ``both arrogant and ignorant'' and they are given just ``10 weeks to choose a government,'' said Stephen Hess, a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington who has been involved in every presidential transition since 1960.

A president needs to understand how the bureaucracy works. ``It's a government of several million employees and all kinds of complexities, so management competence is not trivial,'' said Fred I. Greenstein, an emeritus presidential scholar at Princeton University in New Jersey.

The trail lends itself to a glad-handing extrovert with catchy slogans, while the Oval Office needs a leader who can focus, organize, set priorities and listen.

`Flat-Footed'

To be fair, there's no real preparation for the kinds of decisions one has to make as president. President George W. Bush ``didn't know a 9/11 was coming'' and Ronald Reagan was ``caught flat-footed by the recession of 1981-82,'' Cannon said.

Qualities that Americans demand in their leader -- lofty vision and decisiveness, for example -- can conflict with equally necessary traits, such as pragmatism and flexibility.

``The capacity to inspire'' and convey ``optimism, a sense of destiny, empathy and courage are not necessarily the kinds of traits that lend themselves to organizational flow charts and consensus-building,'' said David Eisenhower, director of the Institute of Public Service at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.

As for advisers, Kennedy and Reagan were famous for listening to a variety of views; the current President Bush is known for limiting his circle to loyalists. Whom Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, or the other candidates would choose is largely unknown.

So what qualities should voters look for?

``Empathy, good judgment, someone who picks smart advisers, who knows about the world,'' said Eisenhower, whose grandfather was President Dwight D. Eisenhower and father-in-law was President Richard Nixon.

Last Updated: January 2, 2008 00:02 EST