But a new word might. And, if events happen is just a certain way, the word could spread like wildfire. Or, as the Korn cover of the earlier Cameo song put it "Everybody say: When you hear the call you got to get it under way Word up."
Crashcade
Complex systems are really robust - up until a certain point. I've referred many times to Joseph Tainter's theory that once past that 'certain point', things begin to fall apart rapidly. In Tainter's own words:
"The graph in Figure 4.1 is based on these arguments. As a society increases in complexity, it expands investment in such things as resource production, information processing, administration, and defense. The benefit/cost curve for these expenditures may at first increase favorably, as the most simple, general, and inexpensive solutions are adopted (a phase not shown on this chart). Yet as a society encounters new stresses, and inexpensive solutions no longer suffice, its evolution proceeds in a more costly direction. Ultimately a growing society reaches a point where continued investment in complexity yields higher returns, but at a declining marginal rate. At a point such as B1, C1 on this chart a society has entered the phase where it starts to become vulnerable to collapse. [2]
Figure 4.1. Diminishing returns to increasing complexity (after Tainter 1988).
Two things make a society liable to collapse at this point. First new emergencies impinge on a people who are investing in a strategy that yields less and less marginal return. As such a society becomes economically weakened it has fewer reserves with which to counter major adversities. A crisis that the society might have survived in its earlier days now becomes insurmountable."
Tainter, of course, never used the word "crashcade" that I'm aware of. His studies were of mostly ancient peoples who ran out of things like water, food, or were hit with a succession of adverse events from which their societies could not recover. Although only 231 years old, most Americans would like to believe that we have finally built a society that will have historical persistence.
Other societies are not quite so convinced of their 'manifest destinies" as we are. Although the Chinese are at the moment ascendant in global affairs, they has been through enough rises, and falls, over some 5,000 years of history, that they harbor few such grand illusions. Beat-downs of historical proportions do teach people things. At about one twentieth of China's cultural age, we seem unwilling as a country to admit that any natural disaster could force a rethinking of our place in the world.
But what if 2008 bring multiple, simultaneous disasters?
A Hypothetical Crashcade
How many 'hits' would the US be able to sustain at once and continue operating in a 'business as usual' way?
One, or two would almost certainly be sustainable, but what if we have four or five big events thrust on the country all at once? What might be those events? Are precursors to be found in today's headlines?
One candidate, which we've been over before, is the pending further collapse of the US dollar. Despite scattered optimism that problems will be solved, there's sound reason for concern. The US continues to spend more than it produces, and although the rate at which we are sinking into the quicksands of international debt have slowed momentarily, the fact is that we are still going deeper in debt at the rate of about 5.5% of our GDP each year. And that doesn't count private financial instruments that are blowing up.
Although you'll sometimes see headlines going to the idea "Will 2008 be a turning point for the dollar?" a cooler assessment would suggest that as long as we're spending more than we make, the pressure on the dollar will continue to increase. That's pretty simple, right?
Where we see the first beginnings of the 2008 crashcade, is that the collapse of the Housing Bubble in the US has already unleashed a further revaluing of the dollar - downward - that will pop into consciousness early in the new year. Last week, banks were borrowing $4.83 billion a day from the Fed to stay afloat.
If you think of the first round of the dollar's decline as being driven by excessive foreign trade deficits & the subprime mess, meaning the balance of trade and the printing up of government securities and CDO/CMO debt which were sold all over the planet to cover our bills, the second revaluation of the dollar will be driven by the Housing Bubble asset collapse forcing a further downward valuation of foreign held collateralized real estate (and other) debt.
Absent the bailouts that have been cobbled together since late August, we would already be in bank runs and failures of money-center banks in the USA. But, that may come anyway, since once the dollar passes some unknowable level against the market basket of currencies, its value could quickly be halved or even quartered as foreign debt-bond holders revalue their all their dollar-denominated holdings based on the combination of falling US asset values, illiquidity of more and more paper 'assets' and a falling exchange rates.
It has the potential on its own to spiral - sort of like a thermal runaway condition in a nuclear power plant. Once the cooling water in a reactor starts to boil out of control, things hit the fan quickly. It might be manageable in isolation, but the world isn't going to work that way in 2008.
The Energy Crashcade
With all of these foreign-held debt instruments being repriced, and the pressure mounting on the dollar, the price of oil, at least seen domestically, will have to go skyward beginning early in the new year. Not that oil is going much of anywhere, except as dictated by Peak Oil and huge emerging market demand from consumer start-up economies funded by our outsourcing, anyway, it will just make headlines.
The reason oil goes through the roof (and beyond) is that if the dollar drops to 50% of today's values, we will have to give twice as many dollars (or more) to buy a barrel of oil. And that means the price of gasoline will double and, along with that, the largest component in food prices is what? Hint: Comes out of a pump. So, look for grain prices and what you pay at the grocery store to at least double in 2008.
Then positive feedback sets in: Higher food prices mean the rate of foreclosures will go up again, and as that happens, what do you suppose will happen to the value of housing debt instruments? They will drop!
OK, and as the value of the housing debt instruments drops - again - what will happen to the purchasing power of the dollar? Right: Down she goes again.
And that means what happens to oil? Well, it doubles again. Except this time it goes from $200 to $400 a barrel, and the rate of foreclosures goes up again, starting the cycle anew.
The Natural Disaster Crashcade
As dire as it sounds, it actually can get worse. Lots worse. Suppose for a moment that rains don't fall again in 2008 in the quickly evolving desert Southeast.
Mussels, or not, the Chattahoochee River flow could be reduced to the point where a decision will have to be made whether to make power or have available drinking water.
Assuming that Atlanta's four million (or so) residents don't want to go thirsty, there's a fair chance that Alabama's Joseph M. Farley nuclear plant on the Chattahoochee would have to be closed down for a lack of cooling water.
So as that nuke plant and those 13 dams start coming offline, there's another crashcade for you: Energy. The power will have to be made up somehow, and either natural gas, or diesel-fired generation is one of the few candidates. And where does that money come from? Answer: It gets printed.
Printing more money/offering debt instruments dilutes what? It waters down the value of all the US dollar debt even further. Resulting in another downward pressure wave on the dollar as those overseas instruments are again repriced.
It's a cycle we won't be able to (stand by for bad pun warning) buck.
The Political Crashcade
Noticing that gasoline prices are up to $12 a gallon, and the power seems to be going out more often, and people are moving out of the Southeast at record rates, while banks are still not selling vacant homes that have been foreclosed on, the national political picture begins to deteriorate as more and more people begin to see that neither of the two "official parties" will be able to quickly respond to the genuine needs of the people. Worried corpgov types quickly move to criminalize even speaking of dissent - already in the works with HR1955, which singles out the internet for government control:
"The Internet has aided in facilitating violent radicalization, ideologically based violence, and the homegrown terrorism process in the United States by providing access to broad and constant streams of terrorist-related propaganda to United States citizens."
Evidence will be discovered that the same people who couldn't get water to the Super Dome for five days are even less capable when it comes to coping with massive population movement out of the New Desert and quadrupling of food and energy prices. With or without the net, email and texting will provide end runs around government news control.
Two critical things seem likely at this juncture. The first would be another round of 'secrets revealed' wherein we might expect that some deep insider will feel compelled as a human to come out with some shocking revelations that could range from secrets about the Powers That be having a plan to bankrupt the country in order to steal the retirement wealth of Americans, or it could be something as outlandish as secrets about alien involvement with America's ruling class of so-called leaders; virtually all of which are owned by the same corrupt money masters that tried to screw the world out of its wealth after squandering what was once the world's juggernaut economy.
Neutered and broke, secrets leaking out all over, political figures begin to disappear. Resignations fly faster than secrets are revealed, until finally, in a bunker-siege mindset, what's left of the Washington DC control apparatchik tries to declare martial law to enforce the will of the bankers, who are sitting on all those foreclosed homes. But, they will prove no match for the millions who will be marching on Washington and state capitols demanding change - not at the November elections, but right now in mid-2008.
And So It Crashcades
Once again, the people overseas holding American debt paper will be forced to look at their holdings and ask "Is this any more than paper with ink on it now that America is fraught with civil disorder and what sure looks from over here in (fill in the offshore financial center of your choice) like a country going into revolution?"
The answer coming into focus tends toward "No, this really is just paper and ink..." and again, the repricing sequence of American financial instruments renews. Only this time, it is now down to 10th of its former value and oil just passed $1,000 a barrel and gasoline is up to $60 a gallon, but of course no one can find it.
As the cities burn in early summer, I expect the remainder of the US government's powers behind the thrown will attempt to launch a North American Currency. Likely: It won't work. The country will be too divided by then. It will be Argentina, but less orderly, more firepower, and decidedly more dangerous.
Despite current efforts by the powers that be, sneaking legislation through Congress to disarm anyone who has ever been treated for post traumatic stress syndrome, using the bribes of PTSD benefit payments, while not disclosing that it's a reason to bar firearm ownership.
The Gunowners of America is the only national group I'm aware of that is actively trying to prevent legislation now pending which could disarm as many as a third of returning American soldiers. The /spinmeisters in DC, having taken the Virginia Tech massacre and spun it into the theft of rights from people who had nothing to do with the event. But, that too,. may come to the fore as still more secrets are revealed.. The anger spirals out of control.
With the political crisis evolving, tax payments slow and government at all levels find they no longer can provide regular services once taken for granted. Government attempts to seize the media amidst martial law.
The lights are now mostly off, the five states of the Southeast are infernos, the water runs in big cities only sometimes, garbage piles up, and early parole programs appear as prison guards discover they can't afford to work on their meager salaries. Those getting out of prisons will long for safer days back inside.
And now, once again, the asset repricing overseas takes place, such that this time, oil goes to $2,000, and then $4,000, and $10,000 a barrel. The dollar collapse is complete, the world in shambles and no one will sell anything to the USA. The last of the lights goes out. Starvation and genocide appear in urban areas.
As the violence is flaring out of control in all major cities, in Washington an alliance of foreclosed upon housing victims teams up with disarmed veterans and simply reforms government, vowing to return to Constitutional values, including sound money; the abandonment of which will be seen in retrospect as the fundamental reason for the country's crashcade.
A Crashcade Mindset
This is not to say that such a sequence of events will occur, only that they might. You will please notice that I describe systemic catastrophic calamity on multiple simultaneous fronts including economic, energy, and environmental, without reference to pandemic flu.
If I had, we'd be set up for a crashcade just on the bird flu alone in 2008. The federal government has already telegraphed its fears in this regard:
Social Disruption May Be Widespread
Plan for the possibility that usual services may be disrupted. These could include services provided by hospitals and other health care facilities, banks, stores, restaurants, government offices, and post offices.
Prepare backup plans in case public gatherings, such as volunteer meetings and worship services, are canceled.
Consider how to care for people with special needs in case the services they rely on are not available.
Depending on where we are with the rest of the crashcade process, a pandemic, or plausibly denial deliberate triage of the global population by reengineered disease would just make things worse. Or would they? Sick people don't eat, don't riot, and a good portion of them die. Living in semi-isolation could become highly desirable.
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As we enter 2008, our mindset will continue to be watchful preparation and contingency planning to reinforce our self-sufficiency in order to be able to take care of those we hold most dear.
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