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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (98769)	1/2/2008 3:53:16 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Always appreciate seeing your detailed thoughts here. I'm still in a similar mindset. Option port 90% puts in retail and banking with a touch of tech. Much too early to expect any meaningful move to the upside. No capitulation and fear has yet to have entered the equation, though it is beginning. And even after we do get that signal, I expect a few years of dull, sideways action with a downward bias. Mistrust of WS will see to that. Bursting of tech and RE bubble within such a short span has to take the wind- and capital- out of googly-eyed speculators' sails.

To: Perspective who wrote (98769)	1/2/2008 4:46:12 PM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Bobcor, I'm putting new money into out-of-the-money LEAP puts on the S&P. Seems like the major indices are due to catch up with the rest of the market. My big dilemma is whether to cash out of my LEAP puts as soon as they qualify for long term gains, or to hold on until the bitter end. Got some nice gains on MCO, Ambac, CFC, SPG and Ryland. They are already down so much. Can I really expect more from them? My biggest frustration is Triad Guarantee (TGIC). I can't figure out what is holding this thing up. It seems to have stalled on its way to zero. My puts expire this month. New puts are way too expensive, and there are no shares to short. I am fighting the urge to go long various beaten up biotech and resource stocks. Bear fatigue is getting to me. Been betting on the housing crash since 2003, so I'm getting kind of bored of this theme just as it is unfolding. My just-for-fun stock research now is all long ideas. I can't seem to force myself to research short ideas. This is a bad attitude considering that we are just in inning two of the bear market.