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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pam who wrote (2919)	1/3/2008 11:30:30 AM
From: Rink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

Pam, That's not exactly a foregone conclusion just yet: At this moment OneNAND rev is just a small portion of Samsung's total NAND rev and mobile phones is just one of the major applications for OneNAND. Also I think there are more flash technologies that stand a good chance below 45nm in the NOR space. Indirectly important: As Samsung moves into the traditional NOR market space mostly at the cost of Numonyx (btw this trend isn't likely to break any time soon), Spansion has recently started to move into the traditional NAND market space. Better late than never. In a few years the differences will blur even more. Your earlier post on the SNDK thread mentions: If two giants, Samsung and Toshiba, controlling in excess of 60% of world's nand ouput agree to push OneNAND, it may become a de facto standard for a lot of devices that need booting capabilities, even if it is not the ideal solution when it comes to mobile phones! . This is of course only a nuance but an important one imo. Although I can't completely agree with your prior post that the cross licensing deal makes the propietary technologies de facto standards, I do agree with this earlier more carefully worded statement. There are actually a few well accepted standards. Imo it would need a commanding share (>>30% rev wise) in the traditional NOR space to make it a de facto standard. Mirrorbit is getting there too. My view is that both Samsung and Spansion are reasonably likely to continue to gain share in the NOR space at the cost of Numonyx plus the smaller players for some time to come. The cross licensing deal is highly important, but not big enough of a thing that would make Spansion's share gains a thing of the past all of a sudden. The basis for my assumptions here is that I think that technologies like charge trapping and SONOS will win over floating gate and that Numonyx is moving to the newer technologies way too slow. Just my 2c... Regards, Rink