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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (252901)	1/3/2008 2:18:25 PM
From: Lou Weed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<<Am i nuts Mike?>> Only occasionally <g>

To: michael97123 who wrote (252901)	1/3/2008 2:38:49 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Changing demographics re: retirement will impact us, the EU and China (don't know about Russia). The pain will vary from country to country in the EU. For ex. Norway has a sovereign wealth fund and Italy has a higher birth rate. It's going to painful for all, but the EU as a group is considered to have some advantages over us as follows: These are averages, of course, and are forward looking. Lower cost of health care. Higher personal savings rates. More even distribution of income. Lower military spending. Also, many countries have lower debt to GDP ratios. For ex. Germany, a large country, at 34%. I'm not sure what the ratio actually is in the US because we have funky, off-balance sheet type accounting that can be used to make ourselves look and feel better. I don't even know if the war expenses are actually in our debt figures?? If memory serves, we have GDP of 12-13 trillion and we just raised the debt ceiling to approx. 10 trillion. That implies a debt ratio of closer to 77% than the 64% that Nadine presented. Going forward, that suggests this country will have to pile on more debt than the EU will to make good on retirement obligations.....all things remaining equal. The evidence suggests that the EU as a group may fare better than we will. China will probably have the surplus capital and govt. revenue to do whatever it wants for its retirees. As for our immigrant population, I don't know how to evaluate it. Alot of money is sent back to family in their home countries. And alot of wages are paid to illegals that haven't had taxes and/or payroll taxes withheld...so who knows?