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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (74806)	1/4/2008 2:37:47 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

2007 was a good year. It was volatile to be sure, but my portfolio was up close to 10%. So when you say this is a bad year, are you referring to 2008? If so, then you might be right. 2008 will be interesting. In the first half, the stock market will be volatile to down since we are ending a typical business cycle and have a lot of financial things to work through in the economy (high oil, sub-prime mess, housing downturn, etc). The second half will be volatile due to it being an election year, but maybe end the year on the upside, if a Democrat is elected. I know you've been on this schtick of a secular bear market, but why do you insist on that when all the evidence is to the contrary? From 2003 to 2007, every year was an up year for the major indexes and on average my portfolio was up 11-12%. That doesn't look like a secular bear to me, but rather a pretty typical upside in the business cycle. Now we're moving into a pretty typical downside in the business cycle, which will probably last a year, then it will be back to the upcycle again. That sounds like a more balanced perspective to me. So that's that for the macro. On the micro, I think Cisco will most definitely be impacted by a US slowdown, but not as much as other US companies, because Cisco is so well geographically diversified. So if you are looking for some safehavens, then Cisco is a good bet in the turmoil to come in 2008. I still continue to say that the downside risk to Cisco is limited. It may move sideways, but it's looking pretty cheap at these levels when seen through the frame of their future growth prospects. I still think the probability is pretty high Cisco will close higher than $27 in January or February.