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Technology Stocks : Satellite Radio & Competing Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (160)	1/5/2008 11:48:34 AM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 180

Tim I am very on-again, off-again about whether I think it will pass. Very much against it, though. I can find no reasonable legal argument for permitting it: The companies say they aren't going broke without it, and it will create an unregulated monopoly without any real "substitute". It just makes no sense. OTOH, all these analysts are just so sure it is going to happen, and you have to figure they are getting their information somewhere. The companies' merger agreement provided for a huge ($175M, I think) penalty for walking away from the deal. However, there is a provision that allows either to walk away if regulatory approval hasn't been received by March. OTOH, Karmazin recently said he would sue the FCC if THEY denied the merger. Both companies have spent 10s of millions to try to get this done and are still spending, and it seems like it has really wrecked any opportunity for them to proceed individually. SIRI's Q4 subscriber #s were pretty weak (SIRI dominates retail better than 60/40, but neither company is selling squat at retail). I'm starting to get the sense they'll get approval, but WITH conditions that may be deal-killers. For example, if it is approved but they are required to give up some of their spectrum or one of the FCC licenses, which totally makes the deal unworkable. DR