To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (5084 ) 1/4/2008 7:10:42 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 149317 The Hinge of Historytimesonline.typepad.com 04 January 2008 The dogs have barked for the last time in Iowa and the vast caravan has moved on to New Hampshire, leaving us in an exquisite vacuum of heady uncertainty in the contest to be the next president of the United States. The more one reflects on it the more impressive and intoxicating Barack Obama's victory seems. Here he is, a generation after civil rights legislation swept away the last vestiges of America's great racial sin, a black man of humble origins on the brink of becoming the favourite to be president. Think about that for a moment because it ought to induce no small sense of awe. It's not to say you need necessarily approve of his policies. It's quite reasonable to object - as many conservatives do - that if you listen to what Obama says he's not really distinguishable in policy terms from any other left-leaning American politician. He's pro-choice on abortion and pro-mushy multilateralism and seems to think government is the solution to most of what ails us. But that is not and never was what his candidacy was about. He is a symbol of a changing America. Not just because, after 20 years of Bush-Clinton hegemony, he's a refershing new name, but because his own very person and provenance offer hope for change for Americans who have become, polls suggest, very disenchanted with the path their country has taken of late. That is why independent voters flocked to his banner in unprecedented numbers in Iowa. That - together with the rhetorical talent (see his speech last night) is why people now - sober, serious, wizened old political pros - are invoking the name and spirit of Bobby Kennedy to describe the Obama Phenomenon. It's unpleasant to say it, but those old enough to remember will recall the pain they felt at RFK's assassination - pain borne of the crushing of what were, perhaps, quite unreasonable hopes. The impossible expectations of Kennedy were never realised because of his death. Obama will - it is devoutly to be hoped - actually have to meet those absurdly high expectations - surely by any measure a tough, if not impossible challenge. And of course in any case he's a long way from being guaranteed of the Democratic nomination. The Clintons will resist with fury this challenge to their birthright and Bill's last chance at power. Hillary will fight and - we are already starting to see - will fight very hard. New Hampshire - unlike Iowa - is a state where voters have unsentimental views about negative campaigning. In 1988 Bob Dole swept to an iowa victory in the Republican primary race and then got brutally assaulted by George Bush Senior in New Hampshire - and was crushed. In 2000 Al Gore finished off Bill Bradley with an unrelenting attack there. Of course the danger for Hillary is obvious. Her high negative ratings have always reflected one ovewhelming fact about her - a lot of people really don't like her. If she opens up on St Barack of Iowa it might prove unedifying even to the hard-bitten, no-nonsense voters of New Hampshire.