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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (29577)	1/5/2008 10:38:26 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78462

Well, as I mentioned it seems that most value purchases are not holding well. And so far it seems that Buffett is the only one from "value" investors (there is a paper characterizing Buffett as "growth" investor, which is partly correct) who is doing well or at least somewhat OK in this market. Last year was tough on Miller (down couple %), Whitman (close to S&P?), Pzena, Jim Clarke :) and others. This year seems to be shaping pretty similarly so far. So far I am not rebalancing. I don't think it is good idea to sell quality companies predicting that they will not perform well in recovery. I would rather sell some of the more dinky holdings, but most of them are so cheap by now that switching also does not make much sense. I got rid of TLB and NUTR last year and I may try to rebalance this year too. My purchases so far are coming from selling mutual funds that I was holding in retirement account and from cash inflows.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (29577)	1/5/2008 12:35:53 PM
From: Brendan W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

spek, did you consider the small-cap value ETF? The VTV top ten names (ExxonMobil, GE, Microsoft, AT&T, P&G, B of A, JNJ, Chevron, Cisco, Citi) don't strike me convincingly as "value". I am thankful for your mentioning the Value ETFs because you can drill into the components and see what the market thinks the value universe is: personal.vanguard.com

To: Spekulatius who wrote (29577)	1/6/2008 10:33:18 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

Re: JNJ and quality companies in this downturn. There is pretty good article in New York Times arguing that large cap growth may outperform value this year too. Search for "Going for Growth, Even in a Slowdown" on NYT site or Google. Main points are that tech and pharmas are more recession proof, while other large-cap growth stocks have not run up much in the last 5 years underperforming S&P (KO, PEP come to mind) so they may not decline much. Or looking from other side, the bull was driven by cyclical and value stocks mostly, so they may decline a lot. Apart from pharmas being "growth" stocks - they have not been such in quite a while IMO - this does make sense. Of course, it all gets into definition of "value" and "growth" stocks too.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (29577)	1/8/2008 10:18:21 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Some recent changes, additions Sold some VTV, LM , SNY Added EWT and CAH, AB AB is an asset manager that was mentioned in Barron's. Well worth a look (decent valuation and strong asset growth). I redeployed funds from the partial sale of LM into AB.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (29577)	1/24/2008 10:14:38 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78462

Sold out all my retail stocks today: JWN, AEO, LIZ except BBY which I am still holding. My EBAY holding taking it to the chin today - ouch! However the stock looks mightingly cheap here. Since they are lowering fees the 11-14% growth rates is less than the organic growth rate of their business. TYC - strong earnings for this spinoff. I am tempted to add. the low US$ helps quite a bit with 50% foreign exposure and it appears that they are running their business more effectively after the spinoff, which is exactly the reason to buy those. I just noticed that I own a little of TEL yet again as a GTC limit order i had open was executed while I was out.