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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 12:13:10 PM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 50725

1) It is a bull market 2) It is a bull market 3) No 4) Buy more KIS

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 12:48:31 PM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 50725

With respect to # 1 and 2 this post has some thoughts worth debugging. Message 24179179

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 12:50:05 PM
From: bmillermn	Respond to of 50725

1. What was the main catalyst, or cause of this explosive move in gold and gold stocks? JIM CRAMER SAID SELL GOLD...thus triggering the Mother of all buy signals.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 2:41:43 PM
From: wildandwonderful	Respond to of 50725

Fear of recession,Fear of markets,Fear of dollar collapsing etc is what is now driving move into gold. Gold is one place people can safely take refuge and hunker down till this subprime mess,Housing collapse,$ 100 oil price picture gets a little clearer. If you look at ABX,NEM,GG,AUY,HMY which make up roughly 50% of the HUI index from Dec 23 to Jan 3 they have all moved up,ABX leads the pack with almost 29% upside and NEM trails the pack but still up nearly 15%. The charts are almost parabolic.Individuals can never move these at such a pace,it only signals the institutions are moving in gold. Easy Money seems to have been made in these stcoks, you need to beat them to the table to make a killing. Fear Factor is still there so move into Gold will still be a factor.Now may be time to pick on some junior mining stocks when new money spills over to them I also noticed silver stocks have made no significant moves.CDE,SWC have actually dropped quite a bit.Silver is supposed to follow Gold,so may be the time to load up on a few of those. I am just throwing out my thoughts, I really dont play in this Arena.Distressed Equities is where I like to concentrate on. Good Luck to everyone.Waiting for Monday Night Smack down

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 2:58:23 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 50725

1) Cause of this move is simply continuation of multi-year trend (due to US monetary inflation plus speculation), now finally crossing the threshold of the previous all-time high 27 years ago. 2) The trend is your friend, buy the dips, etc. Pretend it's the Nasdaq in 1999. 3) Gold rallied while the general market dropped. This is a classic pattern but we have not seen it in a long time. 4) Short the Nasdaq. It may be short-term oversold already, but considering it just gapped down and broke previous support, I'm guessing it has farther to fall right now. And long-term the markets look like they've finally topped so the best shorting opportunities may be yet to come. Like Google for example. Fun-da-Mental

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 5:41:20 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50725

Ok here's my take, the employment numbers/dysfunctional credit markets are becoming so bad that the market now believes the fed will have no choice but increase liquidity despite rising inflation. The longer the credit markets remain dysfunctional the worse the problems will be once they are fixed. The simple fact is if they don't continue to try to re-inflate the economy they face the possibility of a financial meltdown because they have continued to re-inflate each time they have a crisis and the leverage in the economy continues to expand. At some point in time in the near future the fed has almost guaranteed that we will have a financial meltdown because of their continued attempts to re-inflate. The now obvious recession will make the sub-prime/CDO/SIV crisis even worse than they were expecting a short time ago and it's getting close to panic time if we add a recession on top of a housing/credit bubble ending. My opinion is there is very little they can do and it might just be time to pay the piper if they can't re-inflate one more time. The more they continue to re-inflate instead of accepting a recession as a normal part of the business cycle, the higher the leverage of the overall economy and worse it will be once they are forced to accept the end of a business cycle. The next crisis will be when they begin to realize that their credit default swaps are worthless which will result in further bank write downs, next the CP asset backed credit card receivable will begin to show losses and that trillion dollar market will vaporize over night just like the mortgaged backed CP market did, then on to the other consumer loans and the over leveraged LBO’s that were all done at the very top of the business cycle. These are long term problems that will require long term solutions and the fed has boxed itself in a corner by their past and present actions. Jim Nice day in the markets Friday :-)

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 7:29:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 50725

not certain if on wave length of your brain storming questions, but, from personal observation of nearby people and events, here in hong kong, I note 1. What was the main catalyst, or cause of this explosive move in gold and gold stocks? - increasing urgency to protect self against official intervention via competitive devaluation, as folks here are unusually aware of and sensitive to forex volatility (most have multi-currency wrap accounts at the bank, and such are advertised on back of driver's seat in taxis) and noted that the earlier one way trade on usd weakness does not work as well as now - folks noted that gold failed to go down as other stuff and paper went south - evidence of food pricing increases are pervasive, in supermarkets as well as news channels - folks anticipating shanghai open for individual gold futures trading - folks made moolah in share market and trying to nurse the gains even as they try to spot the next big trend - folks anticipating healthy bonus and looking to put money to work on different theme other than what is perceived to require a breather - quite a few money-manager types (for personal accounts, at least) are first time buyers of physical monetary gold, finally moved to action by the early movers' apparent successes - euro, backed for the most part by bankrupt and spendthrift nations that do not measure up to burning france ad mercedes-exporting germany, is disliked for the first time in a long time by money managers for own accounts, figuring that the italy spain and lesser states will either go bankrupt, de-camp from euro, or try to be bailed out at germany's largess, and then go bankrupt anyway 2. What "forward looking" message can you take away from this move in gold? - times are moving from interesting to dire - officialdom has only one way forward, which will only enhance the direness - quite a lot of people have quite a lot of accumulated gains, ill gotten or productively deserved, to protect 3. Did you see anything unusual, contradictory, or confusing in this move? ... if so -- what? - noted that gold moves up against all other monies, appearing to be the chosen one to rule all, for now, for a while - goldman saches apparently closing shorts even as anglo and such closing hedges, but all the while talking bad gold for 2008 (not exactly confusion, but certainly a contradiction on goldmans part) - gold stood up in face of european cb sales, for once 4. What trading/investing opportunities either near term, or longterm, do you see developing out of recent events? - long gold, hedge with yen - long yen, hedge with gold :0) - long gold, hedge with dollar - long volatility - long food - short consumer everything - fade the election campaigns - at some juncture some central bank in the middle east and asia will fess up to accumulating gold, and then, all hell breaks loose - at some point some minor euro nation will ddecamp the euro, and then, another hell will find us

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 8:15:25 PM
From: onward1	Respond to of 50725

Global reserve currency is undergoing and will change. Central Bankers will try to put a new agreement in place. Current price of gold is below expected value for that agreement.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 9:05:50 PM
From: michaelrunge	Respond to of 50725

1. What was the main catalyst, or cause of this explosive move in gold and gold stocks? The Goldman Sachs call, maybe :) VBG reuters.com -Mike

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 10:31:16 PM
From: pogohere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50725

1. Sentiment: loss of confidence. 2. The whippings will continue until morale improves. 3. It ignored the US$ and the central bank failure to add liquidity. 4. Credit card, Heloc and car debt repudiation, heightened publicity for increasing derivative meltdown and major financial institutional failure(s) will make gold, silver investments and downside bets on markets successful during the next 2 months. We'll see consolidation in the gold industry as the bigs use their climbing scrip to buy up junior producers and near-producers. The unemployment data doesn't reflect the employment of illegals and the decline in their numbers. Remittance data gives a clue to what's happening here: banxico.org.mx Keep an eye on Mexico re oil production and return of illegals from the US: could endanger political stability and the future of US/Canadian mining ventures. Look for continued temporary adds to bank liquidity matched by withdrawals of same simultaneously. If we see this, start sniffing for a rat.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/5/2008 11:36:09 PM
From: jimss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50725

1. Main catalyst for explosive moves on Jan 2 & 3 : Tax strategy. Recession threat caused equity liquidation; but many waited for 2008 to take L. T. Gains. Proceeds were immediately put into Gold and Agriculture.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/6/2008 2:28:13 PM
From: anyer2	Respond to of 50725

My shot: 1. The emperor has no clothes. When MS,MER,C have to go outside the country for money it means the whole country is gorged on debt. The banks can not get money here unless the fed GIVES it to them. An auction or discount will not work since they are gorged and don't want more debt, just debt relief.If the smartest guys in the country got in this mess then the smartest guys in goverment are not so smart either. Possibly a total lack of confidence in the goverment developing. 2. No confidence in goverment means no confidence in the currency. An alternative preservative is needed. 3. In the 1930's prices of almost everything went down except gold.Now however we are seeing food and energy rise instead of fall. Oil rise ripples through everything eventually. So while one might expect deflation, it might be we have a vicious buzzsaw scenario where there is both deflation and inflation. Deflation in housing and property as the cost to heat, cool, and insure rise[not to mention property taxes] while the cost of food, plastics,medicine,chemicals rise as well. A downsize in housing coming as McMansions become as hated as SUV's.Inflation in "stuff" and materials in a world where people are a dime a dozen. Even in the 1930's the oil use went up every year yet the price stayed down as there was a surplus of easy to get crude.Expect even a gut wrenching recession to not drop oil this time.The lifeblood of the world for the forseeable future is oil. 4. Be long the renminbi and Russian ruble. Be long gold stocks,gold,silver,oil,oil stocks. Have some assets outside the US in case "emergency" measures are instituted such as Roosevelt did in calling in all the gold. Be long Ag stocks. A real shortage of food could develop. Short the US consumer[debtor]. Short F,GM. Stay short housing.Buy Uranium futures and stocks.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/6/2008 9:12:10 PM
From: redfrecknj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50725

[1. What was the main catalyst, or cause of this explosive move in gold and gold stocks?] The answer is in this announcement: Release Date: December 12, 2007 For immediate release Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets. Federal Reserve Actions Actions taken by the Federal Reserve include the establishment of a temporary Term Auction Facility (approved by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and the establishment of foreign exchange swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank (approved by the Federal Open Market Committee). The first TAF auction of $20 billion is scheduled for Monday, December 17, with settlement on Thursday, December 20; this auction will provide 28-day term funds, maturing Thursday, January 17, 2008. The second auction of up to $20 billion is scheduled for Thursday, December 20, with settlement on Thursday, December 27; this auction will provide 35-day funds, maturing Thursday, January 31, 2008. federalreserve.gov Auction effects here: And more to come: WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve announced Friday that it is increasing the amount of money available to banks through the new auction process it created to ease the nation's severe credit squeeze. The Fed again pledged to continue the auctions "for as long as necessary." The Fed said that it will increase the amount offered at each of the next two auctions from $20 billion to $30 billion, a 50 percent jump. Those two auctions will be Jan. 14 and Jan. 28.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/7/2008 8:08:58 AM
From: paul ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50725

The pattern of gold/shares has changed from the way it has acted over the past 6 years. This last up move perhaps heralds the entrance of the big time players as you suggest with vol and the type of stocks that are now ascendent. The cat is officially out of the barn, the insiders now are certain there's nothin' but inflation on the horizon. December's up move began as Goldman put out it's call to short gold, shake out. The recent rise has been devoid of dollar crashing, the 72 whisper number you spoke of well below the 76 range which has held. Because pattern has changed 550 may not be the next top or at least not for a while. First we must get thru 460 area, the Nov high and a number we fell back from late last week. 550 is very likely to not be the top of this next move.But be prepared for high volatility with the new big players more fully on board. As you have said it is key to follow the psycology and not just the market. WD Gann had said that markets like the psycology repeated themselves by intervals dominated by a 30 and 60 year cycle. The last time a situation existed similar to today was in late seventies with the faith in the US$ at at low, inflation, oil, AND GOLD AT A HIGH. And a Fed chairman without the discipline to halt the printing presses.Arthur Burns in 70's and Ben Burn -anke today. If gold/shares are to continue their run, selective junior shares might be a place for some investment. Many quality jrs. acted as if gold was down 30% last year. They were effected by the credit crunch with many having large cash holdings in high risk paper and all being hit by more limited ability to finance their projects.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7557)	1/7/2008 7:11:08 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 50725

Great questions, but hard ones. 1. What was the main catalyst, or cause of this explosive move in gold and gold stocks? Of all the things that are traded, nothing is more influenced by speculation than gold. It's actual uses are far outweighed by its usefulness as a perceived hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, war. So why the shift towards gold by investors? If you crunch numbers, the one variable consistently related to gold over time is oil. It had a 0.9 ce from 1950 to the 1990's, falling to 0.7 in the subsequent decades. Oil is rightly perceived as an inflationary pressure, and so its effect on gold is clear. Both gold and oil also react to currency changes, although that correlation is much hard to put together. There is also a worry regarding stagflation, as commodities have stubbornly held or risen despite obvious slowing in the US. This is a great scenario for gold. Furthermore, FED easing to create a soft landing is perceived, maybe accurately, as also fueling the inflationary fire. So the two things: inflationary pressures from commodities + a fear of monetary looseness during a recessionary, dollar weakening macro economic picure are plenty to juice the precious metals. 2. What "forward looking" message can you take away from this move in gold? Recent move in gold stocks coincides with the market converting more players to the recession side coupled with the prospects of FED easing and Oils attack on $100. The gold/oil correlation has become very strong again recently suggesting that gold is being supported by oil. 3. Did you see anything unusual, contradictory, or confusing in this move? ... if so -- what? Gold moved up even as the dollar went sideways. But the correlation between gold and the dollar hasn't been that that great for several years now. The other confusing thing is that the stocks had been selling off for a while which usually preceedes a falloff in gold, but in this case gold led the shares. There might be an end of year force in here that I don't fully understand. The one exception to the above is ABX, which has broken through its high and on higher volume, which you can not say of any other miner. Aberration or Leader? 4. What trading/investing opportunities either near term, or longterm, do you see developing out of recent events? Take some profits in gold if you have them, as this retest of Nov highs looks like it failed. Future inflationary pressures are easing per ERCI data. Oil remains a wild card but in a trend that has humbled shorts, myself included. If gold is still something you want to have, then a hybrid hedge, such as long gold, puts on oil services is what I would do. Personally, I just finished divesting myself of the yellow metal, in all forms and am putting the proceeds into what I think is an undervalued market, especially in tech.