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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (99230)	1/7/2008 2:46:01 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

I (and probably Zeus) are referring to areas that have been decimated already through overbuilding and excessive use of toxic ARM's. In some ground zero areas houses are down 60% and lots down 85% even if you pay today's retail. Now way below replacement cost at 2000-01 prices with much higher costs to build and our crashing dollar but with no end in site to the inventory that needs to be absorbed which is nirvana to the agressive vulture investor.. This might play out another 5-7+ years in some markets before they are at bottom.. Has no relevance to what I'm doing that San Fran or Danville, CA is way overpriced and could slide slowly for years to come...Honestly I could care less to own a house worth $850k that generates only $15k a year in operating cash flow unless I bought it $150-200k below market for a quick rehab flip before it comes down much farther. I guarantee someone at those courthouses is making that kind of profit from time to time through knowledge and hard work. If you want to own a house to live in one of these places and buy conventionally I would agree there is no rush...