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Technology Stocks : SONS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: estatemakr who wrote (1358)	1/10/2008 6:56:14 PM
From: GPS Info	Respond to of 1575

Estate Maker, You are too smart for that. I haven’t fallen for that humdinger since I was sixteen. I want back into SONS for the reasons that I’ve outlined earlier, but I won’t stand in front of a freight train to test my luck no matter what the possible gain. I definitely take risks, but I try to look at the big picture, as well as the possible entry points into a stock. I have been fortunate over the last couple of years, catching the rising edge of TXN, GRMN and SIRF. I took a small hit with TRMB, but I learned my lesson. I held CSCO waiting for a tech recovery that has been very slow in its development. I felt that they were in the best position to profit from the recovery. I exited recently. I am most comfortable with GPS technology, as you might guess, but I think that I also understand the semiconductor cycles. I still want SONS to be my new CSCO, in that I would ride it for five or more years. The GPS/CE sector has had a Christmas Effect rise, but is now in a sector-wide decline. Slowly over the last year, I moved to a cash position. Last summer, I was rummaging through Ramsey Su’s posts and found other poster’s link that was a wakeup call. Message 23704324 This is a powerful outline and remarkable predictor of our current situation in the markets. Since 2003 I have been hearing and reading that we would have a significant correction in the house market, and that it could potentially take down the rest of the market with it. This paper by First Pacific Advisors created the most plausible scenario and justification for a housing meltdown. I highly recommend it as a postmortem analysis. Given how smart these people appear, one would think that they would have hedged their bets; however, their funds suffered along with everyone else during this downturn. For examples, check on both FPPTX and FPNIX. Somehow, they couldn’t exit their positions in time to protect their clients. As Carranza said earlier, “[I] haven't perfected the art of selling yet,” but it’s getting much easier for me. With my trades over the last few years, I have managed to catch about 80% of the rise. I don’t expect to repeat this over the next few years, but I’ll do my best to keep a sober attitude during my trades. I tip my hat to anyone, lucky or smart, who can catch 90% or more of the rise, and get out on time. Hell, I’ll take 60% of the rise and consider myself lucky.