To: sea_biscuit who wrote (72 ) 1/11/2008 12:49:40 AM From: the navigator Read Replies (1) | Respond to It's nice that they put out a transcript. Now it's possible to listen to the show and read the transcript simultaneously. So much information is provided that it's hard to absorb it all sometimes.And I think at around 2010, I think that is the end game for the debt Supercycle. And also I think you're going to see what I call the Perfect Financial Storm, which will be three perfect storms: One perfect storm in politics; one perfect storm in economics – meaning the economy and financial markets; and another perfect storm in the area of energy. And that, I think, is going to unfold in the year 2010. It's not going to happen overnight. It's going to be a result of a series of events, one event compounding the previous event. And it will start to build and build and build much like, let’s say, the force of a hurricane or a major storm. And that's where we're heading. So by 2010 we are going to be in a full-scale depression. [32:38] I think part of the problem, John, is there is a discrepancy between the members of the FOMC and the Fed's own research staff. On Friday the day you and I are talking, there are two Berkeley economists Christina and David Romer who have written a paper that's going to be presented at a conference. And for the most part, and the Romers are key because they are members of the seven member business cycle dating committee – what we referred to as the National Bureau of Economic Research. These are the guys that pronounce whether we're in a recession or not. And the couple's paper that they are going to present calls into question the usefulness of the Fed's policy projections or economic projections. They are basically saying, according to this paper, the FOMC policy maker’s economic projections are basically useless and worthless. And they also warn that they are possibly misleading when given greater weight than the Fed's staff members’ forecast. In other words, probably what's more accurate and more useful is the Fed's staff and that is kept internally and that's kept private. They never release that. So what the FOMC people are are cheerleaders. And that's why when you hear all of these Fed governors making speeches, you should take it with a grain of salt because according to this paper by the Romers, they actually even go as far as saying that the Open Market Committee members’ views and staff outlook may be in conflict or there could be a conflict of interest here. The Romers conclude that the FOMC’s inflation forecasts doesn't contribute any useful information. [40:58] I do believe gold is going over a thousand, and if it does go over a thousand, I think just on sheer momentum alone of the hedge funds, the institutions and even at that point Danny Day Traders coming in, you could see gold spike very high, very quickly and hit 1200, 1400 or maybe as high as 1500. So I expect higher gold prices, higher silver prices. I expect this is the year of the junior. I think once gold goes past 1000, you're going to see prices on juniors that are going to be unbelievable. And I also believe across the board you're going to see higher commodity prices, higher agricultural prices, higher base metals prices, higher energy, I mean the whole complex. [19:42]
