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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Madharry who wrote (90400)1/12/2008 12:56:26 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 110194
 
You would think just the increase in the value of the reserves of all the junior minors that aren't in a cash crunch diluting shareholder equity as gold has gone parabolic would have taken them up 3-10 times above even the highs made by the stocks back in 2005-06 when gold was half the currenct price by now..

I can only think of four things:
*Rampant manipulation and quiet accumulation until the big boys finally let them run up in a major way
*Actual reserves are much less than actual studies and reports released to the public
*The price of gold is coming down quite hard soon as we enter a serious deflationary spiral.
*The costs to get it out of the ground are going up as fast as the metal thus offsetting each other

I would think number 3 makes no sense if the majors like NEM and ABX are in strong generational uptrends themselves no matter what your bias is in the inflation/deflation debate.. Number 2 is possible in select instances of outright fraud or incompetence. This leaves numbers 1 and 4 as most likely explanations IMHO with economies of scale of the major allowing them to keep cost increases much lower.