Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (456)	2/2/2008 5:17:45 AM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 588

citi: ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) Revising Pimavanserin Timeline; Reducing PT to $16 ? What’s new—We still believe Acadia will pursue and sign a partnership for Pimavanserin. However, our previous timeline assumptions no longer appear feasible. We are pushing back Pimavanserin launch to 2012 and reducing our 12-month Price Target to $16. We maintain our 2S rating. ? Pimavanserin Timeline—We believe the earliest a Phase III Pimavanserin study could commence is mid-2009 because another Phase II study will need to be conducted if a partner plans to pursue a broad antipsychotic indication and not limit the drug to Risperdal. Due to the time it takes to negotiate Phase III trial design with the FDA after successful phase II, enrollment period for two Phase III trials, collection of 52-week safety data, we believe the 2 Phase III trials and package for NDA submission will not be ready until early 2011 and FDA decision in 2012. ? Financial Changes to Model—As a result of our estimated delay in projected launch, we now see Pimavanserin royalty revenue to ACAD of $20M and $72M in 2012 and 2013 compared to prior estimates of $63M and $108M. This changes our EPS estimates to $0.88 and $2.26 from $1.74 and $2.71 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. ? Additional Catalysts beyond Pimavanserin Partnership — ACP-104 Phase IIb monotherapy data are expected to be released 2Q08. We continue to believe ACP-104 is an exciting program and the trial results should help delineate its efficacy and safety profile. We view the trial’s fast enrollment as indicative of physician interest in this program.