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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (100202)	1/14/2008 11:45:16 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

His missives are (almost) always about the end of suburbia, it's his central thesis. For example, this was his first major book: amazon.com I think we're headed for a fair amount of stress in the suburban lifestyle because it's energy intensive by design. I'm nowhere as pessimistic as Kunstler though, I think electric personal transport will replace liquid fueled engines as the latter become more expensive to operate (probably over the coming 10-15 years). If everyone were given a car that got 50% better fuel milage tomorrow, you'd have a good argument. If it depends on people buying them, remediation will be very slow (i.e, what happens to the "installed base" of SUV's bought from 1999-2006? It doesn't just go away, it continues to burn fuel until either the owners can't afford it or they reach the end of their useful lifespan). The change will have to be made at the consumer level, since government did very little until last year on CAFE. A switch to a vehicular system not requiring liquid fuels (ie, electric cars) would be a great start (reserving liquids for agriculture, plane transport and petrochemicals in particular). 100 years seems more than a little optimistic if production of liquids worldwide is 50% of current by, say, 2035 (and don't forget that the Chindians will be clamoring for their share).