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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (90466)	1/15/2008 12:58:54 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

At some point I expect a treasury bond market crash that will rival the huge bond bear of the 1970s. But as to the timing I haven't a clue.

To: Rarebird who wrote (90466)	1/15/2008 3:57:27 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'..yield on the 10 year bond is lower today than it was during the entire 2001 recession. This tells me that the bond market is either discounting Armageddon or it represents the last great bubble about to implode' We wait and wait for the final signal which will probably be a combination of both.. The ultimate armageddon might be avoided by long term rates remaining low for a while longer.

To: Rarebird who wrote (90466)	1/15/2008 5:47:55 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Is their an etf that shorts the 10 year bond?

To: Rarebird who wrote (90466)	1/17/2008 1:10:29 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 110194

Pretty amazing all the way around. The 10 year note yield has gone down about 37% on an 89 day Rate of Change Oscillator from the high on June 13th at 5.316 in yield down to the low a few weeks ago. I would speculate that we could never in the past 100 years find a period where we saw such a huge percentage reduction in Long rate yield while seeing such a vast percentage increase in a number of commodities or a basket of them. I recall the FED took the Fed funds rate all the way up to 18% in early 1979 and then dropped it all the way down to 9% in mid 1979 and then took it back to 19% by the end of 1979 or early 1980. I would have to go look to see what the long bond did versus commodities during the first half of 1979. As we know commodities where going going vertical in 1979. I looked at a chart of the $TNX - 10 year yield from 1990 with a 55 , 89 and 200 day rate of change osc. I was surprised to see that none of them were showing extraordinarily low readings. A 200 day ROC not only has been down in this area over 10 times since 1990, there have been periods where it was down at the minus 20% area notably for 6 months in mid 1995 to 1996 and for about 15 months of so from mid 2002 to early 2004. To circle back around, and try to make sense of this, it demonstrates what many of us might surmise that we have been witnessing one of the biggest crisis and global market stress periods over the past 200 years. If China and Europe slow down economically now as the FXI China chart is positing, we are not out of the woods yet. John