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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blind-geezer who wrote (3067)	1/17/2008 1:50:28 AM
From: NicoV	Respond to of 4590

I think there are a lot of similarities with AMD's history. In october 2002, AMD reached a deep point on worries whether it 'd survive or not, at $3.5. Spansion's survival is not even in question at this moment, certainly not in the short run. AMD had a good product in the pipeline. Similarly, Spansion has extremely competive products, and it's competitiveness will increase even more in the coming months and years. AMD had a loss of $0.74/share at that moment, Spansion had a similar loss in Q3 07. 13 months later, AMD reached over $18. Loss was still $0.09/share. With all the cost improvements coming online in 08, and it's main competitor losing the deep pockets to fight a price war, it's not unreasonable to expect pricing to go up a bit. I fully expect Spansion to be profitable by the end of 2008 because of better pricing, cost advantages and market share growth. One of these factors alone may be sufficient to reach profitability. So there are a lot of similarities between AMD and Spansion. The differences that I see make Spansion look even better than AMD in 2002: - the desing (mirrorbit) advantage is not going away any time soon, on the contrary. - Spansion is number one in their market, while AMD is number 2 - Spansions products or technology is applicable to a market (NAND) that is an order of magnitude larger than their current market (NOR), and they have a shot at entering that market. Just over 3 years later, in january 2006, AMD reached $40, a more than 10 fold increase. The decline that followedwas mainly cause by a new product introduction by their competitor that caused ASPs to implode. At this moment, I don't see any product with that kind of impact in development by Spansion's competitors. I still remember one of the ads for an investment service in 2000. It said: 'We told you about Dell 2000% ago'. I think Spansion is in the same category (just like .g. RIMM x100 in 4 years, Apple x35 in 5 years)